Closing spread
DAL -6.5
Total
53
Model margin
+4.1est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.079EPA / play+0.084
- 46.8%Success rate46.8%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.168
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.062
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.4%
- +4.19CPOE+1.99
- 45.2%Third-down rate43.7%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
- 2.37Points / drive2.44
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 12–7 since 1999
ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. DAL are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 26/38 | 263 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Edmonds | 18 | 53 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Ward | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 6 | 9 | 79 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 3 | 6 | 74 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 7 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Antoine Wesley | 4 | 5 | 30 | 2 |
| Chase Edmonds | 5 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Jonathan Ward | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 24/38 | 226 | 3 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1/1 | 31 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | 6 | 10 | 54 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 3 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 6 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Amari Cooper | 3 | 7 | 18 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.07