Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
53.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play+0.109
- 43.0%Success rate47.2%
- +0.042EPA / dropback+0.177
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.007
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.3%
- +1.10CPOE+1.89
- 41.6%Third-down rate41.3%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
- 1.88Points / drive2.53
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 12–7 since 1999
ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. DAL are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 21/31 | 261 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emari Demercado | 14 | 79 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 7 | 10 | 96 | 1 |
| Michael Wilson | 3 | 4 | 61 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 5 | 9 | 55 | 1 |
| Elijah Higgins | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 24/39 | 250 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 15 | 83 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Malik Davis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 7 | 12 | 85 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 6 | 9 | 79 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 5 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.99
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.14