2025 · Week 9

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jacoby Brissett

27·17

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

Total

53.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.014EPA / play+0.109
  • 43.0%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.042EPA / dropback+0.177
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.007
  • 6.8%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +1.10CPOE+1.89
  • 41.6%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 56.5%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.53
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 12–7 since 1999

ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. DAL are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3DAL @ ARI16–28ARI
2021 · W17ARI @ DAL25–22ARI
2020 · W6ARI @ DAL38–10ARI
2017 · W3DAL @ ARI28–17DAL
2014 · W9ARI @ DAL28–17ARI
2011 · W13DAL @ ARI13–19ARI
2010 · W16DAL @ ARI26–27ARI
2008 · W6DAL @ ARI24–30ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–DAL
DALQ1 15:001055Turnover on downs0–0
ARIQ1 10:321557Field goal3–0
DALQ1 3:3843Punt3–0
ARIQ1 2:02847Touchdown10–0
DALQ2 12:171252Turnover10–0
ARIQ2 6:30512Opp touchdown10–7
ARIQ2 3:581174Touchdown17–7
DALQ2 0:49312Missed field goal17–7
ARIQ3 15:00479Touchdown24–7
DALQ3 12:481165Field goal24–10
ARIQ3 7:15845Field goal27–10
DALQ3 2:31752Turnover on downs27–10
ARIQ4 14:543-1Punt27–10
DALQ4 12:52771Touchdown27–17
ARIQ4 10:5151Punt27–17
DALQ4 7:11841Turnover27–17
ARIQ4 4:34627Turnover on downs27–17
DALQ4 2:314-18Turnover27–17
ARIQ4 1:1900End of half27–17

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett21/3126120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emari Demercado14795.60
Bam Knight9273.00
Greg Dortch199.00
Jacoby Brissett540.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison Jr.710961
Michael Wilson34610
Trey McBride59551
Elijah Higgins33300
Bam Knight22200
Emari Demercado11-10

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott24/3925011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams15835.50
Dak Prescott4348.50
Malik Davis133.00
KaVontae Turpin133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb712850
George Pickens69790
Jake Ferguson57500
Luke Schoonmaker12140
Ryan Flournoy22121
KaVontae Turpin23100
Javonte Williams1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.99
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+3.14