Closing spread
DAL -4
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play-0.077
- 45.1%Success rate41.4%
- +0.144EPA / dropback-0.076
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.078
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.8%
- +4.08CPOE-5.82
- 39.2%Third-down rate32.0%
- 55.2%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
- 1.79Points / drive1.38
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 12–7 since 1999
ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 28/42 | 299 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 8 | 14 | 86 | 1 |
| Laurent Robinson | 4 | 6 | 72 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Jesse Holley | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Shaun Chapas | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kolb | 16/25 | 247 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 20 | 67 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Kevin Kolb | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Roberts | 6 | 6 | 111 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 2 | 52 | 1 |
| Rob Housler | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.50
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.58
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.32