2011 · Week 13

Final / OT

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

13·19

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kevin Kolb

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

DAL -4

Total

46.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCardinals
  • +0.047EPA / play-0.077
  • 45.1%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback-0.076
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.078
  • 9.0%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +4.08CPOE-5.82
  • 39.2%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 55.2%Red-zone TD rate56.6%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.38
  • 2.0%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 12–7 since 1999

ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9ARI @ DAL27–17ARI
2023 · W3DAL @ ARI16–28ARI
2021 · W17ARI @ DAL25–22ARI
2020 · W6ARI @ DAL38–10ARI
2017 · W3DAL @ ARI28–17DAL
2014 · W9ARI @ DAL28–17ARI
2010 · W16DAL @ ARI26–27ARI
2008 · W6DAL @ ARI24–30ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–ARI
DALQ1 15:00639Punt0–0
ARIQ1 11:5338Punt0–0
DALQ1 9:55520Missed field goal0–0
ARIQ1 7:16532Field goal0–3
DALQ1 4:1330Punt0–3
ARIQ1 1:53611Punt0–3
DALQ2 13:18519Punt0–3
ARIQ2 10:4330Punt0–3
DALQ2 9:41730Field goal3–3
ARIQ2 5:503-11Punt3–3
DALQ2 4:06333Touchdown10–3
ARIQ2 3:0939Punt10–3
DALQ2 1:52717End of half10–3
ARIQ3 15:001178Field goal10–6
DALQ3 8:181265Field goal13–6
ARIQ3 0:34679Touchdown13–13
DALQ4 13:08630Punt13–13
ARIQ4 9:51631Punt13–13
DALQ4 6:27536Punt13–13
ARIQ4 3:5934Punt13–13
DALQ4 2:54747Missed field goal13–13
ARIQ4 0:0200End of half13–13
ARIOT786Touchdown13–19

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo28/4229910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray12383.20
Felix Jones6366.00
Tony Romo210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant814861
Laurent Robinson46720
Jason Witten56470
Jesse Holley22310
Kevin Ogletree35250
John Phillips45220
Shaun Chapas1190
Felix Jones1270

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kevin Kolb16/2524710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells20673.41
Kevin Kolb3206.70
LaRod Stephens-Howling2168.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Roberts661110
Larry Fitzgerald47550
LaRod Stephens-Howling12521
Rob Housler23230
Chris Wells1160
Early Doucet2600

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -43.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.50
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.58
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.32