Closing spread
DAL -11.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-6.0est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.121EPA / play-0.055
- 48.0%Success rate41.0%
- +0.229EPA / dropback-0.082
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.014
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.3%
- +3.68CPOE-2.77
- 49.6%Third-down rate39.6%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 2.67Points / drive1.88
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 12–7 since 1999
ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 25/40 | 249 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 23 | 122 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Gallup | 6 | 7 | 92 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 4 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 5 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 3 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 17/21 | 189 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 14 | 98 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 6 | 55 | 9.2 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 3 | 54 | 18.0 | 1 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wilson | 2 | 2 | 86 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 5 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| James Conner | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 4 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.60%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
33.3%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.84
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.89
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-6.03