2023 · Week 3

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

16·28

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Joshua Dobbs

State Farm Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

DAL -11.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

-6.0est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCardinals
  • +0.121EPA / play-0.055
  • 48.0%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.229EPA / dropback-0.082
  • -0.061EPA / rush-0.014
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +3.68CPOE-2.77
  • 49.6%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 2.67Points / drive1.88
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 12–7 since 1999

ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9ARI @ DAL27–17ARI
2021 · W17ARI @ DAL25–22ARI
2020 · W6ARI @ DAL38–10ARI
2017 · W3DAL @ ARI28–17DAL
2014 · W9ARI @ DAL28–17ARI
2011 · W13DAL @ ARI13–19ARI
2010 · W16DAL @ ARI26–27ARI
2008 · W6DAL @ ARI24–30ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00554Field goal0–3
DALQ1 12:3135Punt0–3
ARIQ1 10:01860Touchdown0–9
DALQ1 6:121034Field goal3–9
ARIQ1 1:48980Touchdown3–15
DALQ2 12:311489Touchdown10–15
ARIQ2 5:321160Field goal10–18
DALQ2 1:28725Punt10–18
ARIQ2 0:25522Field goal10–21
DALQ3 15:001267Field goal13–21
ARIQ3 9:2732Punt13–21
DALQ3 7:19990Turnover on downs13–21
ARIQ3 2:57617Punt13–21
DALQ4 14:531242Field goal16–21
ARIQ4 9:33476Touchdown16–28
DALQ4 7:221464Turnover16–28
ARIQ4 3:00631End of half16–28

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott25/4024911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard231225.30
Dak Prescott3248.00
Rico Dowdle4215.30
CeeDee Lamb294.50
Hunter Luepke199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Gallup67920
CeeDee Lamb47530
Jake Ferguson57480
Rico Dowdle33251
Brandin Cooks27170
Hunter Luepke11120
Peyton Hendershot1130
Luke Schoonmaker0100
Tony Pollard33-10

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joshua Dobbs17/2118910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner14987.01
Joshua Dobbs6559.20
Rondale Moore35418.01
Keaontay Ingram5132.60
Emari Demercado221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Wilson22860
Marquise Brown57611
James Conner22180
Rondale Moore4680
Keaontay Ingram1180
Zach Ertz2260
Trey McBride1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -11.53.1%3.3%5.0%3.2%7.4%6.2%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

1.60%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

33.3%

Expected total

47.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.84
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.89
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-6.03