Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play-0.094
- 36.5%Success rate38.5%
- -0.084EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.220
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.2%
- 28.4%Third-down rate35.1%
- 40.6%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 1.00Points / drive1.22
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.151EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.3 points. ATL are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoney Case | 13/27 | 192 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errict Rhett | 27 | 136 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chuck Evans | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Stoney Case | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qadry Ismail | 6 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| Justin Armour | 1 | 1 | 54 | 1 |
| Pat Johnson | 1 | 1 | 52 | 1 |
| Billy Davis | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Aaron Pierce | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Greg DeLong | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chuck Evans | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Errict Rhett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Kanell | 15/33 | 184 | 1 | 0 |
| Tony Graziani | 9/13 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Oxendine | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Byron Hanspard | 14 | 20 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terance Mathis | 7 | 11 | 66 | 0 |
| Chris Calloway | 4 | 11 | 53 | 0 |
| Jammi German | 3 | 3 | 48 | 1 |
| Ken Oxendine | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Byron Hanspard | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Ronnie Harris | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| O.J. Santiago | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.94
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.13