1999 · Week 4

Final / OT

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Stoney Case

19·13

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Tony Graziani

Georgia Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapFalcons
  • -0.091EPA / play-0.094
  • 36.5%Success rate38.5%
  • -0.084EPA / dropback-0.017
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.220
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.2%
  • 28.4%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 40.6%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
  • 1.00Points / drive1.22
  • 2.7%Turnover rate3.3%
  • -0.151EPA / play allowed+0.013

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–2 since 1999

BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. ATL are 1-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5BAL @ ATL30–23BAL
2022 · W16ATL @ BAL9–17BAL
2018 · W13BAL @ ATL26–16BAL
2014 · W7ATL @ BAL7–29BAL
2010 · W10BAL @ ATL21–26ATL
2006 · W11ATL @ BAL10–24BAL
2002 · W9BAL @ ATL17–20ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001559Missed field goal0–0
BALQ1 5:581131Punt0–0
ATLQ1 0:00311Turnover0–0
BALQ2 13:4031Missed field goal0–0
ATLQ2 12:48413Turnover0–0
BALQ2 10:27716Field goal3–0
ATLQ2 7:05614Punt3–0
BALQ2 5:26422Punt3–0
ATLQ2 3:12844Field goal3–3
BALQ2 1:18420Punt3–3
ATLQ2 0:30319Field goal3–6
BALQ3 15:00854Punt3–6
ATLQ3 11:0934Punt3–6
BALQ3 11:09512Punt3–6
ATLQ3 7:36865Touchdown3–13
BALQ3 3:32463Touchdown10–13
ATLQ3 1:33313Turnover10–13
BALQ4 14:52827Field goal13–13
ATLQ4 10:14516Punt13–13
BALQ4 7:3832Punt13–13
ATLQ4 6:4366Punt13–13
BALQ4 3:593-7Punt13–13
ATLQ4 3:07829Punt13–13
BALQ4 0:4933Turnover on downs13–13
ATLOT35Punt13–13
BALOT364Touchdown19–13

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Stoney Case13/2719220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Errict Rhett271365.00
Chuck Evans144.00
Stoney Case530.60
Jermaine Lewis111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Qadry Ismail69650
Justin Armour11541
Pat Johnson11521
Billy Davis1280
Jermaine Lewis2660
Aaron Pierce1340
Greg DeLong1130
Chuck Evans0200
Errict Rhett0200

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Danny Kanell15/3318410
Tony Graziani9/137300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ken Oxendine11272.50
Byron Hanspard14201.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terance Mathis711660
Chris Calloway411530
Jammi German33481
Ken Oxendine22240
Byron Hanspard22140
Ronnie Harris15100
O.J. Santiago1390

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.1%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.8%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.37
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.94
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.13