2022 · Week 16

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Desmond Ridder

9·17

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tyler Huntley

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 17°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

BAL -6.5

Total

35

Model margin

+0.6est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapRavens
  • +0.002EPA / play+0.004
  • 45.4%Success rate45.3%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback-0.020
  • +0.004EPA / rush+0.034
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -0.74CPOE-1.40
  • 41.9%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 60.2%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.87
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–2 since 1999

BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. BAL are 7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5BAL @ ATL30–23BAL
2018 · W13BAL @ ATL26–16BAL
2014 · W7ATL @ BAL7–29BAL
2010 · W10BAL @ ATL21–26ATL
2006 · W11ATL @ BAL10–24BAL
2002 · W9BAL @ ATL17–20ATL
1999 · W4BAL @ ATL19–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–BAL
BALQ1 15:00419Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:0239Punt0–0
BALQ1 10:43447Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 8:023-6Punt0–3
BALQ1 6:32520Missed field goal0–3
ATLQ1 3:43616Turnover on downs0–3
BALQ1 0:45647Field goal0–6
ATLQ2 12:42641Turnover0–6
BALQ2 9:091370Touchdown0–14
ATLQ2 2:231177Field goal3–14
ATLQ3 15:001767Field goal6–14
BALQ3 7:01518Punt6–14
ATLQ3 3:1735Punt6–14
BALQ3 1:42555Field goal6–17
ATLQ4 14:101373Turnover on downs6–17
BALQ4 6:39415Punt6–17
ATLQ4 4:59945Field goal9–17
BALQ4 2:03211End of half9–17

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Desmond Ridder22/3321800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Allgeier18744.10
Cordarrelle Patterson8172.10
Avery Williams3165.30
Desmond Ridder482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London79960
Tyler Allgeier45430
Olamide Zaccheaus47180
Damiere Byrd12150
Cordarrelle Patterson11140
Avery Williams22140
Anthony Firkser23100
Parker Hesse1180
MyCole Pruitt0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Huntley9/1711510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards11999.00
J.K. Dobbins12594.90
Tyler Huntley11262.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews35450
Sammy Watkins11400
DeSean Jackson12100
Demarcus Robinson1161
Josh Oliver1360
Justice Hill1140
Isaiah Likely1240
J.K. Dobbins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

4.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.84
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.64