Closing spread
BAL -6.5
Total
35
Model margin
+0.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.002EPA / play+0.004
- 45.4%Success rate45.3%
- -0.001EPA / dropback-0.020
- +0.004EPA / rush+0.034
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.1%
- -0.74CPOE-1.40
- 41.9%Third-down rate42.2%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
- 1.97Points / drive1.87
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.3 points. BAL are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 22/33 | 218 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 18 | 74 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Avery Williams | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Desmond Ridder | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 7 | 9 | 96 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 4 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Avery Williams | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Parker Hesse | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 9/17 | 115 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 11 | 99 | 9.0 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 11 | 26 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 1 | 40 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.84
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.64