2026 · Week 5

Final / OT

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tyler Huntley

30·23

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Penix Jr.

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · open

Closing spread

ATL -3.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapFalcons
  • +0.017EPA / play-0.087
  • 44.9%Success rate42.9%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback-0.138
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.027
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +2.17CPOE-7.31
  • 39.5%Third-down rate35.0%
  • 63.3%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.72
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–2 since 1999

BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. ATL are 1-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W16ATL @ BAL9–17BAL
2018 · W13BAL @ ATL26–16BAL
2014 · W7ATL @ BAL7–29BAL
2010 · W10BAL @ ATL21–26ATL
2006 · W11ATL @ BAL10–24BAL
2002 · W9BAL @ ATL17–20ATL
1999 · W4BAL @ ATL19–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–ATL
BALQ1 15:00962Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 10:2734Punt3–0
BALQ1 9:33311Opp touchdown3–7
BALQ1 8:03616Punt3–7
ATLQ1 4:47428Punt3–7
BALQ1 2:31826Punt3–7
ATLQ2 12:1735Punt3–7
BALQ2 10:35420Field goal6–7
ATLQ2 8:04978Touchdown6–14
BALQ2 2:241064Field goal9–14
ATLQ3 15:00965Field goal9–17
BALQ3 9:51574Touchdown15–17
ATLQ3 6:53619Turnover on downs15–17
BALQ3 3:393-1Punt15–17
ATLQ3 1:291574Field goal15–20
BALQ4 8:0336Punt15–20
ATLQ4 6:23952Field goal15–23
BALQ4 2:31852Touchdown23–23
ATLQ4 0:40422Punt23–23
BALOT1463Touchdown30–23
ATLOT220Turnover30–23

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Huntley24/3220120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry241024.30
Justice Hill47318.30
Tyler Huntley6203.31
Zay Flowers11313.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashod Bateman56620
Zay Flowers89530
Mark Andrews46280
Josh Cuevas22260
Derrick Henry12181
Devontez Walker2291
Justice Hill2450

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Michael Penix Jr.19/3224010
Tua Tagovailoa2/33401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson17865.10
Brian Robinson7162.30
Michael Penix Jr.284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London7111180
Jahan Dotson24540
Kyle Pitts56421
Bijan Robinson47320
Zachariah Branch22150
Charlie Woerner12130
Brian Robinson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.69
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.44