Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-11.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Ravensedge mapFalcons
- +0.209EPA / play-0.358
- 46.9%Success rate36.7%
- +0.316EPA / dropback-0.638
- +0.101EPA / rush-0.113
- 10.9%Explosive rate10.0%
- +4.80CPOE-10.42
- 37.5%Third-down rate16.7%
- 83.3%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 3.13Points / drive0.46
- 1.6%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.3 points. ATL are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-13.66
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-11.52