2014 · Week 7

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

7·29

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 54°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

BAL -7

Total

49.5

Model margin

+5.0est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapRavens
  • +0.007EPA / play+0.069
  • 44.0%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.149
  • -0.161EPA / rush-0.046
  • 8.4%Explosive rate10.6%
  • +1.47CPOE-0.77
  • 44.6%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 69.1%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.21
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–2 since 1999

BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. BAL are 7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5BAL @ ATL30–23BAL
2022 · W16ATL @ BAL9–17BAL
2018 · W13BAL @ ATL26–16BAL
2010 · W10BAL @ ATL21–26ATL
2006 · W11ATL @ BAL10–24BAL
2002 · W9BAL @ ATL17–20ATL
1999 · W4BAL @ ATL19–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–BAL
ATLQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:36611Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 11:4737Punt0–7
BALQ1 10:1738Punt0–7
ATLQ1 8:511040Turnover0–7
BALQ1 4:16952Turnover0–7
ATLQ2 14:53511Punt0–7
BALQ2 11:4152Punt0–7
ATLQ2 8:5930Punt0–7
BALQ2 6:561069Touchdown0–14
ATLQ2 2:383-2Punt0–14
ATLQ2 0:593-2Missed field goal0–14
BALQ2 0:37233Field goal0–17
BALQ3 15:00661Field goal0–20
ATLQ3 11:28836Turnover on downs0–20
BALQ3 7:28840Turnover0–20
ATLQ3 3:23732Turnover on downs0–20
BALQ4 15:00831Punt0–20
ATLQ4 9:571086Touchdown7–20
BALQ4 7:12619Punt7–20
ATLQ4 3:523-5Safety7–22
BALQ4 3:44445Touchdown7–29
ATLQ4 1:46844End of half7–29

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan29/4422810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steven Jackson8222.80
Devonta Freeman22010.00
Antone Smith3103.30
Jacquizz Rodgers294.50
Matt Ryan177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White9151001
Julio Jones58560
Devin Hester35280
Levine Toilolo25200
Devonta Freeman55170
Steven Jackson1130
Jacquizz Rodgers1130
Eric Weems1120
Freddie Martino0100
Antone Smith22-10

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco16/2525822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett23954.10
Bernard Pierce8212.61
Joe Flacco144.00
Lorenzo Taliaferro430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith35811
Steve Smith35670
Owen Daniels69581
Kamar Aiken11180
Michael Campanaro11170
Crockett Gillmore11130
Justin Forsett0100
Bernard Pierce0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

4.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.5%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.55
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.04