Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
49.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play+0.069
- 44.0%Success rate44.2%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.149
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.046
- 8.4%Explosive rate10.6%
- +1.47CPOE-0.77
- 44.6%Third-down rate41.5%
- 69.1%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.87Points / drive2.21
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.3 points. BAL are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 29/44 | 228 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Jackson | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Antone Smith | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 9 | 15 | 100 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 5 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 5 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Freddie Martino | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Antone Smith | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 16/25 | 258 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 23 | 95 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 5 | 81 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 3 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 6 | 9 | 58 | 1 |
| Kamar Aiken | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.55
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.04