Closing spread
ATL -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.028EPA / play+0.066
- 41.8%Success rate43.3%
- +0.133EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.066
- 7.3%Explosive rate6.3%
- +2.93CPOE+0.37
- 38.4%Third-down rate46.9%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.78Points / drive2.13
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.3 points. ATL are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 22/34 | 215 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 2 | 34 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Heap | 4 | 6 | 57 | 1 |
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 7 | 50 | 1 |
| Derrick Mason | 4 | 6 | 48 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 32/50 | 316 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 17 | 39 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 12 | 17 | 138 | 2 |
| Michael Jenkins | 5 | 10 | 48 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Michael Palmer | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.40