2010 · Week 10

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

21·26

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapFalcons
  • +0.028EPA / play+0.066
  • 41.8%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.133EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.066
  • 7.3%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +2.93CPOE+0.37
  • 38.4%Third-down rate46.9%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 1.78Points / drive2.13
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–2 since 1999

BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. ATL are 1-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5BAL @ ATL30–23BAL
2022 · W16ATL @ BAL9–17BAL
2018 · W13BAL @ ATL26–16BAL
2014 · W7ATL @ BAL7–29BAL
2006 · W11ATL @ BAL10–24BAL
2002 · W9BAL @ ATL17–20ATL
1999 · W4BAL @ ATL19–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00938Punt0–0
BALQ1 10:15529Punt0–0
ATLQ1 8:0037Punt0–0
BALQ1 6:29622Punt0–0
ATLQ1 3:021491Touchdown0–7
BALQ2 11:24526Punt0–7
ATLQ2 8:37620Punt0–7
ATLQ2 4:511228Field goal0–10
BALQ2 0:1700End of half0–10
BALQ3 15:003-5Turnover0–10
ATLQ3 13:5036Field goal0–13
BALQ3 12:511065Touchdown7–13
ATLQ3 6:50616Punt7–13
BALQ3 2:39516Punt7–13
ATLQ3 1:491162Touchdown7–20
BALQ4 11:341175Touchdown14–20
ATLQ4 5:42522Punt14–20
BALQ4 2:57872Touchdown21–20
ATLQ4 1:05772Touchdown21–26
BALQ4 0:20321End of half21–26

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco22/3421531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice12594.90
Donte' Stallworth23417.00
Joe Flacco3134.30
Willis McGahee382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Todd Heap46571
Anquan Boldin57501
Derrick Mason46481
Ray Rice35430
T.J. Houshmandzadeh26140
Ed Dickson1140
Willis McGahee11-40

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan32/5031630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner17392.30
Matt Ryan155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White12171382
Michael Jenkins510480
Tony Gonzalez45380
Brian Finneran23160
Harry Douglas14120
Michael Palmer1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.40