Closing spread
BAL -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+6.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play-0.014
- 39.9%Success rate40.5%
- -0.078EPA / dropback+0.108
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.175
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.0%
- -2.80CPOE+3.00
- 36.3%Third-down rate42.7%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate50.8%
- 1.44Points / drive1.57
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.3 points. BAL are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 11/21 | 127 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 6 | 54 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 15 | 52 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Adam Jennings | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 24/34 | 236 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 22 | 91 | 4.1 | 3 |
| Musa Smith | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.3%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.99
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.55