2018 · Week 13

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

26·16

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapFalcons
  • +0.035EPA / play+0.083
  • 45.8%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.061EPA / dropback+0.200
  • +0.003EPA / rush-0.160
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -3.77CPOE+4.21
  • 45.4%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate72.2%
  • 2.01Points / drive2.34
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–2 since 1999

BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. ATL are 1-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5BAL @ ATL30–23BAL
2022 · W16ATL @ BAL9–17BAL
2014 · W7ATL @ BAL7–29BAL
2010 · W10BAL @ ATL21–26ATL
2006 · W11ATL @ BAL10–24BAL
2002 · W9BAL @ ATL17–20ATL
1999 · W4BAL @ ATL19–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001149Field goal0–3
BALQ1 9:321070Touchdown7–3
ATLQ1 4:173-10Punt7–3
BALQ1 3:1536Punt7–3
ATLQ1 1:49729Turnover on downs7–3
BALQ2 14:08623Opp touchdown7–10
BALQ2 11:33615Punt7–10
ATLQ2 7:49929Punt7–10
BALQ2 3:5938Punt7–10
ATLQ2 3:053-9Punt7–10
BALQ2 1:46951Field goal10–10
ATLQ2 0:0600End of half10–10
BALQ3 15:001053Field goal13–10
ATLQ3 9:5939Punt13–10
BALQ3 8:391565Field goal16–10
ATLQ3 0:3136Punt16–10
BALQ4 14:031255Field goal19–10
ATLQ4 7:251-13Opp touchdown26–10
ATLQ4 7:161142Touchdown26–16
ATLQ4 4:1800Touchdown26–16
BALQ4 4:1800End of half26–16
BALQ4 4:1417End of half26–16
BALQ4 4:09516End of half26–16

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson12/2112500
Robert Griffin III2/42100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards21823.90
Lamar Jackson17754.41
Kenneth Dixon8374.60
Ty Montgomery3134.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews33470
Ty Montgomery57420
Michael Crabtree34360
Chris Moore11210
Willie Snead1380
Nick Boyle1270
Kenneth Dixon1160
John Brown0400

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan16/2613110
Mohamed Sanu0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ito Smith7223.10
Tevin Coleman681.30
Matt Ryan242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Hooper55441
Mohamed Sanu34370
Calvin Ridley35220
Julio Jones28180
Russell Gage1170
Tevin Coleman1330
Ito Smith1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.3%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.35
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.43