Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.083
- 45.8%Success rate46.6%
- +0.061EPA / dropback+0.200
- +0.003EPA / rush-0.160
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.6%
- -3.77CPOE+4.21
- 45.4%Third-down rate45.1%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate72.2%
- 2.01Points / drive2.34
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.3 points. ATL are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 12/21 | 125 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 2/4 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 21 | 82 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 17 | 75 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 5 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| John Brown | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 16/26 | 131 | 1 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ito Smith | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hooper | 5 | 5 | 44 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 2 | 8 | 18 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.10
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.35
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.43