2002 · Week 9

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Jeff Blake

17·20

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Vick

Georgia Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

ATL -7

Total

40.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapFalcons
  • -0.058EPA / play+0.036
  • 41.6%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.044EPA / dropback+0.092
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.038
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.3%
  • 38.2%Third-down rate42.9%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
  • 1.09Points / drive1.94
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.049

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 6–2 since 1999

BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 38.4 points. ATL are 1-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5BAL @ ATL30–23BAL
2022 · W16ATL @ BAL9–17BAL
2018 · W13BAL @ ATL26–16BAL
2014 · W7ATL @ BAL7–29BAL
2010 · W10BAL @ ATL21–26ATL
2006 · W11ATL @ BAL10–24BAL
1999 · W4BAL @ ATL19–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–ATL
ATLQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
BALQ1 14:001160Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 8:271267Field goal3–3
BALQ1 1:2310Turnover3–3
ATLQ1 1:0724Turnover3–3
BALQ1 0:243-4Punt3–3
ATLQ2 13:453-3Punt3–3
BALQ2 12:401-10Opp touchdown3–10
ATLQ2 12:3000Opp touchdown3–10
BALQ2 12:30936Turnover on downs3–10
ATLQ2 8:15554Touchdown3–17
BALQ2 5:569107Touchdown10–17
ATLQ2 1:5621End of half10–17
BALQ3 15:00677Touchdown17–17
ATLQ3 11:503-8Punt17–17
BALQ3 10:20412Punt17–17
ATLQ3 8:331047Field goal17–20
BALQ3 2:0244Punt17–20
ATLQ3 0:2632Punt17–20
BALQ4 14:05847Punt17–20
ATLQ4 9:43735Punt17–20
BALQ4 6:23511Punt17–20
ATLQ4 4:53942End of half17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Blake14/2722911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Taylor13939.00
Jamal Lewis12363.00
Alan Ricard3279.01
Jeff Blake5224.40
Chester Taylor11717.00
Brandon Stokley2126.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Taylor461271
Todd Heap58600
Jamal Lewis24230
Brandon Stokley25110
Javin Hunter1280
Ron Johnson0100
Terry Jones0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick12/2413601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Duckett13755.81
Warrick Dunn10404.00
Mike Vick7-5-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Finneran37420
Trevor Gaylor48320
Warrick Dunn11230
Shawn Jefferson12140
Reggie Kelly11140
Alge Crumpler11110
Quentin McCord0200
T.J. Duckett1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

4.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.8%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.70
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.26