Closing spread
ATL -7
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play+0.036
- 41.6%Success rate42.3%
- -0.044EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.038
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.3%
- 38.2%Third-down rate42.9%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 1.09Points / drive1.94
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–2 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 36.3 points. ATL are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 14/27 | 229 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Taylor | 1 | 39 | 39.0 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Jeff Blake | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Taylor | 4 | 6 | 127 | 1 |
| Todd Heap | 5 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Javin Hunter | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Ron Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Terry Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 12/24 | 136 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Duckett | 13 | 75 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 7 | -5 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Finneran | 3 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Trevor Gaylor | 4 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Quentin McCord | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.70
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.26