Closing spread
SEA -3.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. SEA are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 11:05 | 14 | 64 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| LV | Q1 3:36 | 14 | 87 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| SEA | Q2 11:08 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 14–3 |
| LV | Q2 9:19 | 10 | 50 | Punt | 14–3 |
| SEA | Q2 4:04 | 4 | 33 | Punt | 14–3 |
| LV | Q2 2:05 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–3 |
| SEA | Q2 1:43 | 5 | 35 | Touchdown | 14–9 |
| LV | Q2 0:59 | 2 | 8 | End of half | 14–9 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 14–9 |
| LV | Q3 14:06 | 6 | 17 | Touchdown | 21–9 |
| SEA | Q3 11:24 | 12 | 66 | Touchdown | 21–16 |
| LV | Q3 6:46 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 21–16 |
| SEA | Q3 3:21 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 21–19 |
| LV | Q3 1:58 | 6 | 30 | Turnover | 21–19 |
| SEA | Q4 14:10 | 8 | 48 | Field goal | 21–22 |
| LV | Q4 10:07 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 21–22 |
| SEA | Q4 6:20 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 21–22 |
| LV | Q4 4:31 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 21–22 |
| SEA | Q4 3:37 | 7 | 17 | Punt | 21–22 |
| LV | Q4 0:45 | 3 | 44 | Missed field goal | 21–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 15/30 | 213 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 24 | 71 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Pritchard | 3 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 5 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Derrick Mayes | 2 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Sean Dawkins | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.89
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.