Closing spread
OAK -6
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. SEA are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 53 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 11:18 | 8 | 34 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| SEA | Q1 8:19 | 12 | 66 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| LV | Q1 0:52 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 3–6 |
| SEA | Q2 14:16 | 9 | 40 | Punt | 3–6 |
| LV | Q2 9:48 | 10 | 89 | Touchdown | 10–6 |
| SEA | Q2 4:20 | 9 | 76 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| LV | Q2 0:20 | 1 | -3 | End of half | 16–13 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| SEA | Q3 14:44 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–13 |
| LV | Q3 13:09 | 8 | 66 | Field goal | 20–13 |
| SEA | Q3 8:33 | 9 | 71 | Touchdown | 20–20 |
| LV | Q3 4:18 | 7 | 14 | Punt | 20–26 |
| SEA | Q3 1:18 | 1 | 88 | Touchdown | 20–27 |
| LV | Q3 1:05 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 20–27 |
| SEA | Q4 14:54 | 7 | 52 | Punt | 20–27 |
| LV | Q4 10:03 | 3 | 16 | Turnover | 20–27 |
| SEA | Q4 8:30 | 3 | 25 | Touchdown | 20–34 |
| LV | Q4 7:03 | 10 | 63 | Touchdown | 27–34 |
| SEA | Q4 3:40 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 27–34 |
| LV | Q4 1:07 | 6 | 35 | End of half | 27–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 15/23 | 181 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 35 | 266 | 7.6 | 3 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Jay Graham | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Jackson | 7 | 9 | 102 | 1 |
| Koren Robinson | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jay Graham | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| James Williams | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.