Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
-0.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. OAK are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 17/23 | 222 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 14 | 59 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 6 | 8 | 91 | 0 |
| David Moore | 2 | 3 | 47 | 1 |
| Rashaad Penny | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Tyrone Swoopes | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 4 | 13 | 1 |
| Brandon Marshall | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.78
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.04
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.