Closing spread
OAK -1.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. OAK are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 13/32 | 160 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Washington | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 9 | 7 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Carlson | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.79
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.