2010 · Week 8

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

3·33

Raiders

Oakland

QB Jason Campbell

Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

OAK -1.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

OAK perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. OAK are 8-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W12LV @ SEA40–34RAIDERS
2018 · W6SEA @ OAK27–3SEA
2014 · W9OAK @ SEA24–30SEA
2006 · W9OAK @ SEA0–16SEA
2002 · W1SEA @ OAK17–31RAIDERS
2001 · W9OAK @ SEA27–34SEA
2001 · W3SEA @ OAK14–38RAIDERS
2000 · W16OAK @ SEA24–27SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–OAK
LVQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:313-12Punt0–0
LVQ1 11:5439Punt0–0
SEAQ1 9:5536Punt0–0
LVQ1 8:19750Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 5:14414Punt0–3
LVQ1 3:1438Punt0–3
SEAQ1 1:054-4Punt0–3
LVQ2 14:481282Touchdown0–10
SEAQ2 8:5438Punt0–10
LVQ2 7:03616Punt0–10
SEAQ2 2:29535Punt0–10
LVQ2 1:4238Punt0–10
SEAQ2 0:40422Missed field goal0–10
LVQ2 0:1500End of half0–10
SEAQ3 15:00519Punt0–10
LVQ3 12:52876Field goal0–13
SEAQ3 9:09627Missed field goal0–13
LVQ3 7:11553Missed field goal0–13
SEAQ3 4:5033Punt0–13
LVQ3 3:30892Field goal0–16
SEAQ4 14:5270Turnover0–22
LVQ4 13:36169Touchdown0–23
SEAQ4 13:261022Field goal3–23
LVQ4 8:5735Field goal3–26
SEAQ4 7:18417Punt3–26
LVQ4 6:02671Touchdown3–33
SEAQ4 1:5635End of half3–33

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck13/3216001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leon Washington5295.80
Justin Forsett5112.20
Marshawn Lynch970.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Carlson34470
Golden Tate27360
Mike Williams15270
Justin Forsett36230
Brandon Stokley11130
Chris Baker1150
Ben Obomanu1350
Deon Butler1540

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.8%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.30
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.79

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.