2022 · Week 12

Final / OT

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

40·34

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 44°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

SEA -4

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.009EPA / play+0.013
  • 43.4%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.057EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.071
  • 9.9%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -2.03CPOE+5.46
  • 39.7%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 59.7%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
  • 2.10Points / drive2.05
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. SEA are 4-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W6SEA @ OAK27–3SEA
2014 · W9OAK @ SEA24–30SEA
2010 · W8SEA @ OAK3–33RAIDERS
2006 · W9OAK @ SEA0–16SEA
2002 · W1SEA @ OAK17–31RAIDERS
2001 · W9OAK @ SEA27–34SEA
2001 · W3SEA @ OAK14–38RAIDERS
2000 · W16OAK @ SEA24–27SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–SEA
LVQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 14:45212Touchdown0–7
LVQ1 14:321175Touchdown7–7
SEAQ1 9:2450Punt7–7
LVQ1 6:4422Turnover7–7
SEAQ1 5:55429Field goal7–10
LVQ1 4:2330Punt7–10
SEAQ1 2:40852Field goal7–13
LVQ2 13:34661Touchdown14–13
SEAQ2 10:02311Turnover20–13
LVQ2 8:36130Touchdown21–13
SEAQ2 8:29775Touchdown21–20
LVQ2 5:211262Field goal24–20
SEAQ2 0:1000End of half24–20
SEAQ3 15:00775Touchdown24–27
LVQ3 11:461073Field goal27–27
SEAQ3 5:0333Punt27–27
LVQ3 3:12537Punt27–27
SEAQ3 0:44964Turnover27–27
LVQ4 11:50620Turnover on downs27–27
SEAQ4 8:55842Touchdown27–34
LVQ4 5:371080Touchdown34–34
SEAQ4 1:5455Punt34–34
LVQ4 0:40213End of half34–34
LVOT737Missed field goal34–34
SEAOT35Punt40–34
LVOT186Touchdown40–34

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr25/3629532

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs332296.92
Zamir White22814.00
Ameer Abdullah3165.30
Derek Carr2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams711740
Josh Jacobs67740
Mack Hollins45631
Ameer Abdullah33391
Foster Moreau37331
Keelan Cole22120
Jakob Johnson0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith27/3732821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III14261.92
Geno Smith5224.40
Travis Homer284.00
Marquise Goodwin177.00
DeeJay Dallas122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf1115900
Tyler Lockett37681
Marquise Goodwin33480
Travis Homer23451
Noah Fant33340
Will Dissly23170
DeeJay Dallas22130
Kenneth Walker III11130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.64
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.91