Closing spread
SEA -4
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play+0.013
- 43.4%Success rate44.8%
- +0.057EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.071
- 9.9%Explosive rate9.2%
- -2.03CPOE+5.46
- 39.7%Third-down rate37.4%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
- 2.10Points / drive2.05
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. SEA are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 25/36 | 295 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 33 | 229 | 6.9 | 2 |
| Zamir White | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 11 | 74 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 6 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 4 | 5 | 63 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 3 | 39 | 1 |
| Foster Moreau | 3 | 7 | 33 | 1 |
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jakob Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 27/37 | 328 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 14 | 26 | 1.9 | 2 |
| Geno Smith | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 11 | 15 | 90 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 7 | 68 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 2 | 3 | 45 | 1 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.64
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.91