Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
34
Model margin
+1.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. SEA are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 13:35 | 7 | 53 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 10:39 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 8:48 | 7 | 37 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LV | Q1 5:46 | 9 | 18 | Punt | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q1 1:23 | 11 | 73 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| LV | Q2 11:11 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 0–13 |
| SEA | Q2 8:48 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–13 |
| LV | Q2 7:25 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 0–13 |
| SEA | Q2 5:36 | 4 | 26 | Punt | 0–13 |
| LV | Q2 2:44 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–13 |
| SEA | Q2 1:45 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 0–13 |
| LV | Q2 0:18 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–13 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 41 | Punt | 0–13 |
| LV | Q3 11:22 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 0–13 |
| SEA | Q3 8:45 | 5 | 32 | Punt | 0–13 |
| LV | Q3 6:03 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–13 |
| SEA | Q3 5:35 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–13 |
| LV | Q3 4:31 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–13 |
| SEA | Q3 3:32 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–13 |
| LV | Q3 2:11 | 11 | 57 | Punt | 0–13 |
| SEA | Q4 12:42 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 0–13 |
| LV | Q4 8:58 | 5 | 10 | Turnover on downs | 0–13 |
| SEA | Q4 7:35 | 11 | 50 | Field goal | 0–16 |
| LV | Q4 1:17 | 5 | 44 | End of half | 0–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 18/30 | 176 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 30 | 138 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 3 | 49 | 16.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.14
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.