Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
34
Model margin
+1.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. SEA are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 18/30 | 176 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 30 | 138 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 3 | 49 | 16.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.14
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.