2014 · Week 9

Final

Raiders

Oakland

QB Derek Carr

24·30

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 54°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

SEA -13.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+5.8est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. SEA are 4-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W12LV @ SEA40–34RAIDERS
2018 · W6SEA @ OAK27–3SEA
2010 · W8SEA @ OAK3–33RAIDERS
2006 · W9OAK @ SEA0–16SEA
2002 · W1SEA @ OAK17–31RAIDERS
2001 · W9OAK @ SEA27–34SEA
2001 · W3SEA @ OAK14–38RAIDERS
2000 · W16OAK @ SEA24–27SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultOAK–SEA
LVQ1 15:001150Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 9:101033Touchdown3–7
LVQ1 4:0731Punt3–7
SEAQ1 3:0932Punt3–7
LVQ1 2:03416Opp touchdown3–14
LVQ2 15:0035Turnover3–14
SEAQ2 13:2332Field goal3–17
LVQ2 12:2400Missed field goal3–17
SEAQ2 12:1533Missed field goal3–17
LVQ2 11:2047Punt3–17
SEAQ2 9:01825Punt3–17
LVQ2 4:1230Punt3–17
SEAQ2 3:501283Touchdown3–24
LVQ2 0:54526Missed field goal3–24
SEAQ3 15:0033Opp touchdown10–24
SEAQ3 13:52931Punt10–24
LVQ3 9:13519Punt10–24
SEAQ3 6:38314Punt10–24
LVQ3 5:14530Touchdown17–24
SEAQ3 2:58963Field goal17–27
LVQ4 14:5036Punt17–27
SEAQ4 13:11730Field goal17–30
LVQ4 9:19417Punt17–30
SEAQ4 7:29840Punt17–30
LVQ4 4:141049Touchdown24–30
SEAQ4 1:5200End of half24–30

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson17/3517900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch21673.22
Robert Turbin5357.00
Russell Wilson8313.90
Christine Michael4164.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marshawn Lynch55760
Doug Baldwin56380
Kevin Norwood11190
Luke Willson15160
Robert Turbin12140
Paul Richardson36120
Jermaine Kearse1740
Ricardo Lockette0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

3.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.5%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.33
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.82

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.