Closing spread
SEA -13.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. SEA are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 17/35 | 179 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 21 | 67 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Robert Turbin | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 5 | 5 | 76 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 5 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Kevin Norwood | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 3 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 1 | 7 | 4 | 0 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.82
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.