Closing spread
OAK -7.5
Total
40
Model margin
+2.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. OAK are 8-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 10:47 | 6 | 40 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 6:53 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–7 |
| SEA | Q1 6:06 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 3:27 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 7–7 |
| SEA | Q1 1:42 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 14:35 | 3 | 33 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| SEA | Q2 13:51 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LV | Q2 12:15 | 6 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| SEA | Q2 9:38 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–21 |
| LV | Q2 8:01 | 9 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–28 |
| SEA | Q2 3:17 | 12 | 64 | Missed field goal | 7–28 |
| LV | Q2 0:04 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 7–28 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 7–28 |
| LV | Q3 14:08 | 9 | 42 | Field goal | 7–31 |
| SEA | Q3 9:02 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–31 |
| LV | Q3 8:02 | 10 | 67 | Turnover | 7–31 |
| SEA | Q3 2:07 | 5 | 10 | Field goal | 10–31 |
| LV | Q4 14:57 | 7 | 34 | Turnover | 10–31 |
| SEA | Q4 11:45 | 12 | 44 | Touchdown | 17–31 |
| LV | Q4 5:44 | 11 | 34 | End of half | 17–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 23/32 | 155 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koren Robinson | 5 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 6 | 6 | 36 | 1 |
| Bobby Engram | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Alex Bannister | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.47
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.