Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
40
Model margin
+2.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play-0.035
- 40.8%Success rate40.6%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.016
- -0.154EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.5%
- 36.6%Third-down rate36.1%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.48Points / drive1.38
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.019EPA / play allowed-0.063
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 13:09 | 19 | 76 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| GB | Q1 3:26 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 1:18 | 15 | 55 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| GB | Q2 8:28 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q2 7:42 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–3 |
| GB | Q2 6:43 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q2 5:07 | 6 | 58 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| GB | Q2 2:10 | 3 | -3 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| DEN | Q2 1:42 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–3 |
| GB | Q2 1:08 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–3 |
| DEN | Q2 0:25 | 2 | 19 | End of half | 3–3 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–3 |
| GB | Q3 13:25 | 2 | -1 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| DEN | Q3 12:41 | 3 | 14 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| GB | Q3 11:17 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–10 |
| DEN | Q3 10:39 | 4 | 27 | Punt | 3–10 |
| GB | Q3 8:30 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| DEN | Q3 6:47 | 1 | 78 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| GB | Q3 6:21 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| DEN | Q3 5:39 | 9 | 36 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| GB | Q3 1:16 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 10–24 |
| DEN | Q4 14:07 | 6 | 92 | Touchdown | 10–31 |
| GB | Q4 11:06 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 10–31 |
| DEN | Q4 9:48 | 12 | 48 | End of half | 10–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 7/23 | 120 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 10 | 12 | 1.2 | 1 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Bradford | 1 | 2 | 54 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 1 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 19/31 | 363 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olandis Gary | 37 | 124 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Howard Griffith | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| John Avery | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 5 | -4 | -0.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Chamberlain | 3 | 6 | 123 | 0 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 5 | 5 | 116 | 2 |
| Rod Smith | 4 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| John Avery | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Andre Cooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.33
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.23