Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
40
Model margin
+2.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play-0.035
- 40.8%Success rate40.6%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.016
- -0.154EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.5%
- 36.6%Third-down rate36.1%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.48Points / drive1.38
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.019EPA / play allowed-0.063
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 7/23 | 120 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 10 | 12 | 1.2 | 1 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Bradford | 1 | 2 | 54 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 1 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 19/31 | 363 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olandis Gary | 37 | 124 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Howard Griffith | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| John Avery | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 5 | -4 | -0.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Chamberlain | 3 | 6 | 123 | 0 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 5 | 5 | 116 | 2 |
| Rod Smith | 4 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| John Avery | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Andre Cooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.33
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.23