2015 · Week 8

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

10·29

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

GB -2.5

Total

46

Model margin

+2.8est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBroncos
  • +0.002EPA / play-0.070
  • 42.3%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.075EPA / dropback-0.041
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.118
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -0.77CPOE-1.92
  • 33.6%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 62.9%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.47
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15GB @ DEN26–34DEN
2023 · W7GB @ DEN17–19DEN
2019 · W3DEN @ GB16–27GB
2011 · W4DEN @ GB23–49GB
2007 · W8GB @ DEN19–13GB
2003 · W17DEN @ GB3–31GB
1999 · W6GB @ DEN10–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DEN
DENQ1 15:00525Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:44713Punt0–0
DENQ1 9:36983Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 4:39517Punt0–7
DENQ1 1:45795Touchdown0–14
GBQ2 14:0239Punt0–14
DENQ2 11:58751Field goal0–17
GBQ2 7:461261Touchdown7–17
DENQ2 2:581041Punt7–17
GBQ3 15:001237Field goal10–17
DENQ3 9:07880Touchdown10–24
GBQ3 5:25713Punt10–24
DENQ3 2:10874Field goal10–27
GBQ4 12:251-10Safety10–29
DENQ4 12:09521Turnover10–29
GBQ4 9:574-2Punt10–29
DENQ4 6:51830Punt10–29
GBQ4 1:0922End of half10–29

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers14/227700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy11383.51
Aaron Rodgers23115.50
Randall Cobb11010.00
James Starks591.80
Alonzo Harris221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb69270
Richard Rodgers24160
James Starks2290
Eddie Lacy1290
Davante Adams1280
Justin Perillo1160
James Jones1220

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning21/2934001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson141017.21
Ronnie Hillman19603.22
Juwan Thompson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas8111680
Virgil Green33610
Owen Daniels33440
Andre Caldwell12240
Emmanuel Sanders25220
Bennie Fowler22210
C.J. Anderson1150
Ronnie Hillman12-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.30
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.78