Closing spread
GB -2.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.002EPA / play-0.070
- 42.3%Success rate40.5%
- +0.075EPA / dropback-0.041
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.118
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- -0.77CPOE-1.92
- 33.6%Third-down rate35.2%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.72Points / drive1.47
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 14/22 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| James Starks | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Alonzo Harris | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 6 | 9 | 27 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| James Starks | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Justin Perillo | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| James Jones | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 21/29 | 340 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 14 | 101 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 19 | 60 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Juwan Thompson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 8 | 11 | 168 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 3 | 3 | 61 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.78