Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.075EPA / play-0.001
- 43.6%Success rate42.8%
- +0.184EPA / dropback+0.071
- -0.109EPA / rush-0.100
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.4%
- +4.25CPOE+1.55
- 42.9%Third-down rate40.0%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate49.6%
- 2.16Points / drive1.46
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 21/27 | 331 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 22 | 104 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Vernand Morency | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| DeShawn Wynn | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | -8 | -4.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 21/34 | 264 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selvin Young | 18 | 71 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Andre Hall | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.37