Closing spread
GB -12
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play+0.230
- 39.5%Success rate48.2%
- -0.100EPA / dropback+0.405
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.114
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.2%
- -6.16CPOE+8.47
- 30.8%Third-down rate48.7%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
- 1.16Points / drive2.85
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. GB are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 22/32 | 273 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 15 | 103 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lloyd | 8 | 11 | 136 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 5 | 10 | 56 | 2 |
| Daniel Fells | 2 | 3 | 29 | 1 |
| Matt Willis | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 29/38 | 408 | 4 | 1 |
| Matt Flynn | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Alex Green | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 7 | 7 | 103 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 5 | 6 | 91 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 3 | 75 | 0 |
| James Jones | 3 | 4 | 48 | 1 |
| James Starks | 5 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 3 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.62
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.77