Closing spread
GB -1.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.122EPA / play+0.036
- 48.0%Success rate43.7%
- +0.274EPA / dropback+0.097
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.069
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.1%
- +5.62CPOE-1.38
- 48.8%Third-down rate42.4%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
- 2.39Points / drive2.10
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 24/40 | 276 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 12 | 73 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Jordan Love | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Reed | 5 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Matthew Golden | 3 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| John FitzPatrick | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 23/34 | 302 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Harvey | 19 | 65 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Bo Nix | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 7 | 10 | 113 | 1 |
| Troy Franklin | 6 | 6 | 85 | 1 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 3 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Michael Bandy | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.06