2025 · Week 15

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

26·34

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

GB -1.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBroncos
  • +0.122EPA / play+0.036
  • 48.0%Success rate43.7%
  • +0.274EPA / dropback+0.097
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.069
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +5.62CPOE-1.38
  • 48.8%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
  • 2.39Points / drive2.10
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W7GB @ DEN17–19DEN
2019 · W3DEN @ GB16–27GB
2015 · W8GB @ DEN10–29DEN
2011 · W4DEN @ GB23–49GB
2007 · W8GB @ DEN19–13GB
2003 · W17DEN @ GB3–31GB
1999 · W6GB @ DEN10–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DEN
DENQ1 15:00622Turnover0–0
GBQ1 11:40722Field goal3–0
DENQ1 7:0236Punt3–0
GBQ1 4:561094Field goal6–0
DENQ2 14:111170Touchdown6–7
GBQ2 8:191080Touchdown13–7
DENQ2 4:29672Touchdown13–14
GBQ2 1:56755Field goal16–14
DENQ2 0:0200End of half16–14
GBQ3 15:00446Touchdown23–14
DENQ3 13:5931Punt23–14
GBQ3 12:5510Turnover23–14
DENQ3 12:46771Touchdown23–21
GBQ3 9:07616Punt23–21
DENQ3 4:511175Touchdown23–27
GBQ4 15:00846Field goal26–27
DENQ4 10:551061Touchdown26–34
GBQ4 7:2722Turnover26–34
DENQ4 6:3147Turnover on downs26–34
GBQ4 4:5971Turnover on downs26–34
DENQ4 2:2848Turnover on downs26–34
GBQ4 1:0740Turnover on downs26–34
DENQ4 0:4400End of half26–34

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love24/4027612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs12736.11
Jordan Love3299.70
Chris Brooks2105.00
Emanuel Wilson231.50
Bo Melton100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jayden Reed56550
Matthew Golden34550
Luke Musgrave46520
Romeo Doubs23360
Christian Watson35290
Josh Jacobs23191
John FitzPatrick34180
Dontayvion Wicks1260
Chris Brooks1260
Bo Melton0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix23/3430240

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
RJ Harvey19653.41
Bo Nix7101.40
Marvin Mims Jr.188.00
Jaleel McLaughlin242.00
Troy Franklin133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton7101131
Troy Franklin66851
Lil'Jordan Humphrey34421
Marvin Mims Jr.46290
Michael Bandy11201
Evan Engram13120
Tyler Badie1110
RJ Harvey0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.06