Closing spread
GB -10
Total
41.5
Model margin
+9.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
3.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play+0.065
- 44.6%Success rate45.9%
- +0.043EPA / dropback+0.126
- +0.047EPA / rush+0.001
- 8.6%Explosive rate10.4%
- 39.9%Third-down rate41.0%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate74.0%
- 1.96Points / drive2.11
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.073EPA / play allowed-0.077
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. GB are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Kanell | 9/18 | 61 | 0 | 1 |
| Jarious Jackson | 4/9 | 41 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Griffin | 21 | 74 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Cecil Sapp | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jarious Jackson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 12/21 | 116 | 1 | 1 |
| Doug Pederson | 1/1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 20 | 218 | 10.9 | 2 |
| Najeh Davenport | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
3.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
73.2%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+5.22
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+9.46