Closing spread
GB -10
Total
41.5
Model margin
+9.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
3.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play+0.065
- 44.6%Success rate45.9%
- +0.043EPA / dropback+0.126
- +0.047EPA / rush+0.001
- 8.6%Explosive rate10.4%
- 39.9%Third-down rate41.0%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate74.0%
- 1.96Points / drive2.11
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.073EPA / play allowed-0.077
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. GB are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 8:49 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 5:37 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 4:13 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 2:30 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 0:59 | 8 | 35 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| GB | Q2 11:49 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q2 11:42 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| GB | Q2 10:08 | 9 | 32 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 4:43 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–10 |
| GB | Q2 3:00 | 12 | 43 | Missed field goal | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 0:32 | 6 | 29 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 0–10 |
| GB | Q3 11:49 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q3 8:06 | 8 | 30 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| GB | Q3 4:00 | 4 | 69 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| DEN | Q3 1:35 | 7 | 17 | Turnover on downs | 3–23 |
| GB | Q4 13:31 | 1 | 98 | Touchdown | 3–30 |
| DEN | Q4 13:18 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 3–31 |
| DEN | Q4 13:10 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–31 |
| GB | Q4 11:31 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–31 |
| DEN | Q4 9:20 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–31 |
| GB | Q4 7:03 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–31 |
| DEN | Q4 4:44 | 7 | 19 | Turnover on downs | 3–31 |
| GB | Q4 1:15 | 2 | -1 | End of half | 3–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Kanell | 9/18 | 61 | 0 | 1 |
| Jarious Jackson | 4/9 | 41 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Griffin | 21 | 74 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Cecil Sapp | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jarious Jackson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 12/21 | 116 | 1 | 1 |
| Doug Pederson | 1/1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 20 | 218 | 10.9 | 2 |
| Najeh Davenport | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
3.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
73.2%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+5.22
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+9.46