Closing spread
DEN -1.5
Total
44
Model margin
-0.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.075EPA / play-0.046
- 45.1%Success rate42.3%
- +0.155EPA / dropback-0.005
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.110
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.6%
- +1.07CPOE+3.74
- 47.4%Third-down rate36.8%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
- 2.16Points / drive1.87
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 21/31 | 180 | 2 | 1 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 1/1 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dillon | 15 | 61 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dillon | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 2 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Luke Musgrave | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 3 | 4 | 21 | 1 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Samori Toure | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Ben Sims | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/29 | 194 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 15 | 82 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 5 | 45 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 6 | 6 | 76 | 1 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 5 | 5 | 64 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Nate Adkins | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.39