2023 · Week 7

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

17·19

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

DEN -1.5

Total

44

Model margin

-0.4est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBroncos
  • +0.075EPA / play-0.046
  • 45.1%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback-0.005
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.110
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +1.07CPOE+3.74
  • 47.4%Third-down rate36.8%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
  • 2.16Points / drive1.87
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DEN are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15GB @ DEN26–34DEN
2019 · W3DEN @ GB16–27GB
2015 · W8GB @ DEN10–29DEN
2011 · W4DEN @ GB23–49GB
2007 · W8GB @ DEN19–13GB
2003 · W17DEN @ GB3–31GB
1999 · W6GB @ DEN10–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DEN
DENQ1 15:001172Field goal0–3
GBQ1 8:2738Punt0–3
DENQ1 6:3535Punt0–3
GBQ1 5:15516Punt0–3
DENQ1 2:311065Field goal0–6
GBQ2 13:14710Punt0–6
DENQ2 9:44717Punt0–6
GBQ2 6:311052Missed field goal0–6
DENQ2 0:41550Field goal0–9
GBQ2 0:05114End of half0–9
GBQ3 15:001164Field goal3–9
DENQ3 10:24875Touchdown3–16
GBQ3 6:171070Touchdown10–16
DENQ3 1:4638Punt10–16
GBQ4 14:501166Touchdown17–16
DENQ4 8:31841Field goal17–19
GBQ4 3:50631Turnover17–19
DENQ4 1:4046Turnover on downs17–19

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love21/3118021
Dontayvion Wicks1/11400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
AJ Dillon15614.10
Aaron Jones8354.40
Jordan Love3217.00
Emanuel Wilson2199.50
Dontayvion Wicks111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
AJ Dillon22340
Romeo Doubs25301
Luke Musgrave45300
Christian Watson35270
Aaron Jones35220
Jayden Reed34211
Dontayvion Wicks11170
Emanuel Wilson2280
Samori Toure1230
Ben Sims1120

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson20/2919410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams15825.50
Jaleel McLaughlin5459.00
Russell Wilson12121.00
Samaje Perine2105.00
Marvin Mims Jr.1-11-11.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton66761
Jerry Jeudy55640
Samaje Perine33310
Javonte Williams34140
Adam Trautman1250
Nate Adkins1130
Jaleel McLaughlin1210
Marvin Mims Jr.0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.0%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.39