Closing spread
GB -7
Total
42
Model margin
+4.0est.
GB perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.054EPA / play+0.059
- 40.3%Success rate43.9%
- -0.019EPA / dropback+0.124
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.062
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.5%
- -2.47CPOE+0.96
- 32.0%Third-down rate37.9%
- 50.1%Red-zone TD rate69.9%
- 1.47Points / drive2.12
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. GB are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 20/29 | 213 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 21 | 81 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Royce Freeman | 15 | 63 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 7 | 87 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 4 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 17/29 | 235 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 10 | 19 | 1.9 | 2 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 6 | 10 | 99 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Danny Vitale | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.22
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.96