2019 · Week 3

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Joe Flacco

16·27

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

GB -7

Total

42

Model margin

+4.0est.

GB perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapPackers
  • -0.054EPA / play+0.059
  • 40.3%Success rate43.9%
  • -0.019EPA / dropback+0.124
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.062
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -2.47CPOE+0.96
  • 32.0%Third-down rate37.9%
  • 50.1%Red-zone TD rate69.9%
  • 1.47Points / drive2.12
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. GB are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15GB @ DEN26–34DEN
2023 · W7GB @ DEN17–19DEN
2015 · W8GB @ DEN10–29DEN
2011 · W4DEN @ GB23–49GB
2007 · W8GB @ DEN19–13GB
2003 · W17DEN @ GB3–31GB
1999 · W6GB @ DEN10–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–GB
GBQ1 15:00575Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 12:163-4Punt0–7
GBQ1 10:11842Punt0–7
DENQ1 7:531577Touchdown7–7
GBQ2 14:18641Field goal7–10
DENQ2 11:191473Field goal10–10
GBQ2 3:5000Punt10–10
GBQ2 3:5013Punt10–10
GBQ2 3:1324Punt10–10
DENQ2 2:271-13Turnover10–10
GBQ2 2:1725Touchdown10–17
DENQ2 1:5636Punt10–17
GBQ2 1:0326End of half10–17
DENQ3 15:00312Turnover10–17
GBQ3 13:44437Touchdown10–24
DENQ3 12:091275Touchdown16–24
GBQ3 5:59417Punt16–24
DENQ3 4:23559Turnover16–24
GBQ3 1:43511Punt16–24
DENQ3 0:0837Punt16–24
GBQ4 13:301056Field goal16–27
DENQ4 5:491018Turnover on downs16–27
GBQ4 2:16416Missed field goal16–27
DENQ4 1:0530End of half16–27

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco20/2921301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Phillip Lindsay21813.92
Royce Freeman15634.20
Joe Flacco252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton57870
Phillip Lindsay45490
Noah Fant33370
Jeff Heuerman22200
Emmanuel Sanders25100
Royce Freeman45100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers17/2923510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams12594.90
Aaron Jones10191.92
Aaron Rodgers1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquez Valdes-Scantling610991
Davante Adams44560
Danny Vitale11270
Jamaal Williams22270
Marcedes Lewis12190
Aaron Jones1140
Robert Tonyan1340
Jimmy Graham0100
Geronimo Allison13-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

4.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.6%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.96