1999 · Week 6

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Neil O'Donnell

24·21

Saints

New Orleans

QB Billy Joe Tolliver

Louisiana Superdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

36.5

Model margin

-2.2est.

NO perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapSaints
  • +0.007EPA / play-0.148
  • 40.1%Success rate36.9%
  • +0.067EPA / dropback-0.081
  • -0.083EPA / rush-0.247
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.7%
  • 39.0%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 58.0%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
  • 1.52Points / drive1.12
  • 2.1%Turnover rate3.4%
  • -0.042EPA / play allowed+0.007

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–4 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. NO are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17NO @ TEN34–26NO
2023 · W1TEN @ NO15–16NO
2021 · W10NO @ TEN21–23TEN
2019 · W16NO @ TEN38–28NO
2015 · W9TEN @ NO34–28TEN
2011 · W14NO @ TEN22–17NO
2007 · W3TEN @ NO31–14TEN
2003 · W3NO @ TEN12–27TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–NO
NOQ1 15:00419Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:25420Punt0–0
NOQ1 11:5539Punt0–0
TENQ1 9:54440Turnover0–0
NOQ1 8:24413Punt0–0
TENQ1 6:2534Punt0–0
NOQ1 5:211052Field goal0–3
TENQ1 0:0042Punt0–3
NOQ2 13:58318Turnover0–3
TENQ2 12:253-6Turnover0–3
NOQ2 11:00829Punt0–3
TENQ2 8:1835Turnover0–3
NOQ2 7:03519Touchdown0–10
TENQ2 4:27756Missed field goal0–10
NOQ2 1:48869End of half0–10
TENQ3 15:001174Touchdown7–10
NOQ3 7:58879Turnover7–10
TENQ3 3:5333Punt7–10
NOQ3 2:5534Field goal7–13
TENQ3 1:561174Touchdown14–13
NOQ4 10:0833Punt14–13
TENQ4 8:1834Punt14–13
NOQ4 6:39315Turnover14–13
TENQ4 5:1234Field goal17–13
NOQ4 2:5810Opp touchdown24–13
TENQ4 2:4000Opp touchdown24–13
NOQ4 2:401280Touchdown24–21
TENQ4 0:4500End of half24–21

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Neil O'Donnell12/2512422

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George281555.50
Neil O'Donnell540.80
Kevin Dyson133.00
Rodney Thomas133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Dyson36411
Derrick Mason11310
Chris Sanders27160
Eddie George12120
Frank Wycheck1350
Isaac Byrd1140
Michael Roan0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Billy Joe Tolliver28/4535422

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams17352.10
Lamar Smith2168.00
Billy Joe Tolliver242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eddie Kennison713940
Cameron Cleeland77840
Scott Slutzker45631
Andre Hastings12420
Keith Poole25250
Brett Bech11150
Lamar Smith2491

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.2%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.12
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.17