Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
36.5
Model margin
-2.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.148
- 40.1%Success rate36.9%
- +0.067EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.247
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.7%
- 39.0%Third-down rate34.1%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
- 1.52Points / drive1.12
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.042EPA / play allowed+0.007
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–4 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. NO are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil O'Donnell | 12/25 | 124 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 28 | 155 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Dyson | 3 | 6 | 41 | 1 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 2 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Michael Roan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Joe Tolliver | 28/45 | 354 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 17 | 35 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Billy Joe Tolliver | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Kennison | 7 | 13 | 94 | 0 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 7 | 7 | 84 | 0 |
| Scott Slutzker | 4 | 5 | 63 | 1 |
| Andre Hastings | 1 | 2 | 42 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Brett Bech | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 2 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.2%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.62
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.12
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.17