Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
49
Model margin
+1.1est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play+0.063
- 47.0%Success rate45.7%
- +0.172EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.046
- 9.3%Explosive rate11.6%
- +3.92CPOE+3.45
- 43.9%Third-down rate39.4%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 2.45Points / drive1.99
- 0.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–4 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. TEN are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 27/38 | 279 | 3 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/2 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 11 | 80 | 7.3 | 2 |
| Latavius Murray | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 12 | 17 | 136 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 3 | 4 | 84 | 2 |
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Krishawn Hogan | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 17/27 | 272 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 15 | 68 | 4.5 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 49 | 49.0 | 1 |
| Dalyn Dawkins | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tajae Sharpe | 5 | 6 | 69 | 2 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 4 | 63 | 1 |
| Corey Davis | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dalyn Dawkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.69
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.13