2019 · Week 16

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

38·28

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NO -3.5

Total

49

Model margin

+1.1est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapTitans
  • +0.084EPA / play+0.063
  • 47.0%Success rate45.7%
  • +0.172EPA / dropback+0.143
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.046
  • 9.3%Explosive rate11.6%
  • +3.92CPOE+3.45
  • 43.9%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
  • 2.45Points / drive1.99
  • 0.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–4 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. TEN are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17NO @ TEN34–26NO
2023 · W1TEN @ NO15–16NO
2021 · W10NO @ TEN21–23TEN
2015 · W9TEN @ NO34–28TEN
2011 · W14NO @ TEN22–17NO
2007 · W3TEN @ NO31–14TEN
2003 · W3NO @ TEN12–27TEN
1999 · W6TEN @ NO24–21TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–TEN
TENQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
NOQ1 12:58511Punt0–0
TENQ1 10:37573Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 7:554-5Punt0–7
TENQ1 6:01370Touchdown0–14
NOQ1 4:501345Field goal3–14
TENQ2 13:36411Punt3–14
NOQ2 11:54632Punt3–14
TENQ2 9:334-4Punt3–14
NOQ2 7:3847Punt3–14
TENQ2 6:33614Punt9–14
NOQ2 2:34161Touchdown10–14
TENQ2 2:23618Punt10–14
NOQ2 0:18212End of half10–14
NOQ3 15:00344Touchdown17–14
TENQ3 14:00618Punt17–14
NOQ3 11:08970Touchdown24–14
TENQ3 7:08575Touchdown24–21
NOQ3 4:25552Touchdown31–21
TENQ3 1:18824Punt31–21
NOQ4 12:313-8Punt31–21
TENQ4 10:42642Touchdown31–28
NOQ4 7:27734Turnover on downs31–28
TENQ4 4:23123Turnover31–28
NOQ4 4:06625Touchdown38–28
TENQ4 2:10534Turnover on downs38–28
NOQ4 1:4400End of half38–28

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees27/3827930
Taysom Hill1/22000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara11807.32
Latavius Murray7142.00
Taysom Hill2115.50
Drew Brees3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas12171361
Jared Cook34842
Alvin Kamara67300
Taysom Hill22210
Tre'Quan Smith12130
Latavius Murray23110
Krishawn Hogan1140
Ted Ginn0100
Deonte Harty1100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill17/2727230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dion Lewis15684.50
A.J. Brown14949.01
Dalyn Dawkins9242.70
Ryan Tannehill188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tajae Sharpe56692
Jonnu Smith34631
Corey Davis34400
A.J. Brown12340
Kalif Raymond22320
Dion Lewis12190
MyCole Pruitt22150
Anthony Firkser0100
Dalyn Dawkins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

7.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.1%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.69
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.13