Closing spread
NO -7
Total
50
Model margin
+4.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play+0.080
- 41.1%Success rate44.6%
- -0.050EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.200EPA / rush-0.078
- 7.8%Explosive rate10.0%
- +0.30CPOE+2.78
- 32.1%Third-down rate48.9%
- 67.5%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 1.32Points / drive2.09
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–4 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. NO are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 28/39 | 371 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Andrews | 19 | 88 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 7 | 8 | 95 | 2 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 5 | 10 | 77 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 5 | 5 | 73 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Antonio Andrews | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 3 | 4 | 17 | 1 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 28/39 | 387 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 22 | 54 | 2.5 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Snead | 6 | 10 | 95 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 6 | 71 | 1 |
| Benjamin Watson | 5 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 2 | 3 | 58 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
4.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.63