2015 · Week 9

Final / OT

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

34·28

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -7

Total

50

Model margin

+4.6est.

NO perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapSaints
  • -0.103EPA / play+0.080
  • 41.1%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.200EPA / rush-0.078
  • 7.8%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +0.30CPOE+2.78
  • 32.1%Third-down rate48.9%
  • 67.5%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 1.32Points / drive2.09
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–4 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. NO are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17NO @ TEN34–26NO
2023 · W1TEN @ NO15–16NO
2021 · W10NO @ TEN21–23TEN
2019 · W16NO @ TEN38–28NO
2011 · W14NO @ TEN22–17NO
2007 · W3TEN @ NO31–14TEN
2003 · W3NO @ TEN12–27TEN
1999 · W6TEN @ NO24–21TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–NO
TENQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:36882Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 9:463-1Punt0–7
TENQ1 8:4139Field goal3–7
NOQ1 6:58880Touchdown3–14
TENQ1 3:44570Touchdown10–14
NOQ1 1:001262Touchdown10–21
TENQ2 11:01577Touchdown17–21
NOQ2 8:0833Punt17–21
TENQ2 6:5738Punt17–21
NOQ2 5:28739Punt17–21
TENQ2 1:47670Turnover17–21
NOQ2 0:1800End of half17–21
NOQ3 15:0039Punt17–21
TENQ3 12:561056Field goal20–21
NOQ3 7:17850Turnover20–21
TENQ3 3:3032Punt20–21
NOQ3 2:291456Touchdown20–28
TENQ4 11:32848Touchdown28–28
NOQ4 7:06610Punt28–28
TENQ4 4:28952Missed field goal28–28
NOQ4 1:55527Missed field goal28–28
TENQ4 0:5635Punt28–28
NOQ4 0:1100End of half28–28
TENOT980Touchdown34–28

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota28/3937140

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Andrews19884.60
Dexter McCluster8192.40
Marcus Mariota155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker78952
Dorial Green-Beckham510770
Harry Douglas55730
Anthony Fasano33331
Dexter McCluster24280
Craig Stevens23250
Antonio Andrews12230
Justin Hunter34171

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees28/3938731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram22542.50
C.J. Spiller284.00
Drew Brees3-1-0.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Willie Snead610950
Brandin Cooks46711
Benjamin Watson55600
Brandon Coleman23580
Mark Ingram45420
Marques Colston33370
Josh Hill22211
C.J. Spiller1220
Michael Hoomanawanui1311

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

4.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.4%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.14
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.63