Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
44
Model margin
+2.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Saints
- OutAlvin KamaraRBKnee· DNP
- OutChauncey Gardner-JohnsonSFoot· DNP
- OutTerron ArmsteadTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableCarl GrandersonDEShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableTy MontgomeryWRHamstring· Limited
- DNPPayton TurnerDEShoulder
- LimitedRyan RamczykTNot injury related - resting player
Titans
- OutDane CruikshankSKnee· DNP
- OutDavid LongLBHamstring· DNP
- OutGreg MabinCBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableJulio JonesWRHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableRashaan EvansLBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableTeair TartDTGroin· DNP
- DNPA.J. BrownWRKnee
- DNPRyan TannehillQBIllness
- LimitedBud DupreeLBKnee
- LimitedChris JacksonCBFoot
- LimitedHarold LandryLBHamstring
- LimitedJeffery SimmonsDTAnkle
- LimitedTory CarterFBHip
Win probability
- Titans
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play+0.025
- 41.1%Success rate44.7%
- +0.003EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.147EPA / rush-0.054
- 7.0%Explosive rate7.8%
- -5.00CPOE+2.33
- 36.1%Third-down rate43.8%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 1.88Points / drive2.15
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–4 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. TEN are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 13:06 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 9:24 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 8:08 | 7 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 4:30 | 7 | 70 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 0:52 | 6 | 75 | Touchdown | 6–3 |
| TEN | Q2 12:59 | 9 | 53 | Field goal | 6–6 |
| NO | Q2 7:44 | 6 | 5 | Punt | 6–6 |
| TEN | Q2 5:01 | 10 | 57 | Touchdown | 6–13 |
| NO | Q2 1:38 | 6 | 32 | End of half | 6–13 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 6–13 |
| TEN | Q3 14:53 | 5 | 19 | Touchdown | 6–20 |
| NO | Q3 12:02 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–20 |
| TEN | Q3 11:04 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 6–20 |
| NO | Q3 9:05 | 11 | 87 | Touchdown | 12–20 |
| TEN | Q3 3:54 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 12–20 |
| NO | Q3 2:21 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 12–20 |
| TEN | Q3 1:24 | 10 | 54 | Field goal | 12–23 |
| NO | Q4 10:01 | 9 | 68 | Field goal | 15–23 |
| TEN | Q4 5:33 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 15–23 |
| NO | Q4 3:34 | 8 | 61 | Touchdown | 21–23 |
| TEN | Q4 1:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 19/34 | 298 | 2 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2/2 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deonte Harty | 3 | 4 | 84 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 4 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 4 | 7 | 44 | 1 |
| Marquez Callaway | 2 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 5 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Kevin White | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 19/27 | 213 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Johnson | 5 | 6 | 100 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Dez Fitzpatrick | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.46
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.16