Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
44
Model margin
+2.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play+0.025
- 41.1%Success rate44.7%
- +0.003EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.147EPA / rush-0.054
- 7.0%Explosive rate7.8%
- -5.00CPOE+2.33
- 36.1%Third-down rate43.8%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 1.88Points / drive2.15
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–4 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. TEN are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 19/34 | 298 | 2 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2/2 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deonte Harty | 3 | 4 | 84 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 4 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 4 | 7 | 44 | 1 |
| Marquez Callaway | 2 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 5 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Kevin White | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 19/27 | 213 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Johnson | 5 | 6 | 100 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Dez Fitzpatrick | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.46
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.16