Closing spread
NO -1.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
-4.0est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.148
- 42.4%Success rate37.9%
- -0.032EPA / dropback-0.165
- -0.155EPA / rush-0.117
- 5.5%Explosive rate7.3%
- +1.72CPOE-3.50
- 39.4%Third-down rate32.0%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.53Points / drive1.36
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–4 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. TEN are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 22/27 | 333 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Audric Estimé | 14 | 94 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Tyler Shough | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Evan Hull | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 8 | 11 | 119 | 1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 4 | 4 | 95 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Kevin Austin Jr. | 4 | 5 | 52 | 1 |
| Moliki Matavao | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Audric Estimé | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 21/40 | 251 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 18 | 85 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Cam Ward | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chimere Dike | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kalel Mullings | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 6 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chig Okonkwo | 3 | 7 | 55 | 1 |
| Chimere Dike | 4 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 4 | 7 | 37 | 1 |
| Mason Kinsey | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| David Martin-Robinson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| James Proche | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Gunnar Helm | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.6%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.66
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.96