2025 · Week 17

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Tyler Shough

34·26

Titans

Tennessee

QB Cam Ward

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

NO -1.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

-4.0est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapTitans
  • -0.076EPA / play-0.148
  • 42.4%Success rate37.9%
  • -0.032EPA / dropback-0.165
  • -0.155EPA / rush-0.117
  • 5.5%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +1.72CPOE-3.50
  • 39.4%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 50.0%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 1.53Points / drive1.36
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–4 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. TEN are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W1TEN @ NO15–16NO
2021 · W10NO @ TEN21–23TEN
2019 · W16NO @ TEN38–28NO
2015 · W9TEN @ NO34–28TEN
2011 · W14NO @ TEN22–17NO
2007 · W3TEN @ NO31–14TEN
2003 · W3NO @ TEN12–27TEN
1999 · W6TEN @ NO24–21TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–TEN
TENQ1 15:00516Punt0–0
NOQ1 12:083-2Punt0–0
TENQ1 10:4433Field goal0–3
NOQ1 9:10440Missed field goal0–3
TENQ1 7:36647Field goal0–6
NOQ1 4:3136Punt0–6
TENQ1 2:06764Touchdown0–13
NOQ2 12:571149Field goal3–13
TENQ2 5:53419Opp touchdown10–13
TENQ2 3:511035Touchdown10–20
NOQ2 0:1300End of half10–20
NOQ3 15:00974Touchdown17–20
TENQ3 10:34555Field goal17–23
NOQ3 7:20941Field goal20–23
TENQ3 1:51935Field goal20–26
NOQ4 12:50375Turnover20–26
TENQ4 11:06516Punt20–26
NOQ4 8:45480Touchdown27–26
TENQ4 6:223-7Punt27–26
NOQ4 4:54464Touchdown34–26
TENQ4 3:44827Turnover on downs34–26
NOQ4 2:043-3Punt34–26
TENQ4 1:37926End of half34–26

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Shough22/2733320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Audric Estimé14946.71
Tyler Shough461.50
Evan Hull231.50
Taysom Hill300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave8111191
Juwan Johnson44950
Dante Pettis34530
Kevin Austin Jr.45521
Moliki Matavao22100
Audric Estimé1140

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Ward21/4025120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard18854.70
Cam Ward2105.00
Chimere Dike177.00
Kalel Mullings144.00
Tyjae Spears620.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chig Okonkwo37551
Chimere Dike45550
Van Jefferson33460
Elic Ayomanor47371
Mason Kinsey11340
Tony Pollard22100
David Martin-Robinson1190
James Proche1550
Gunnar Helm1210
Tyjae Spears12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.9%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.7%3.7%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.6%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.96