Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
-1.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Saints
- OutJonathan CasillasLBKnee· DNP
- OutMark IngramRBToe· DNP
- OutTurk McBrideDEAnkle· DNP
- ProbableJonathan VilmaLBKnee· DNP
- ProbableScott ShanleLBShoulder· Limited
- ProbableSedrick EllisDTHamstring· Limited
Titans
- OutBarrett RuudLBGroin· DNP
- QuestionableJason McCourtyCBConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableNate WashingtonWRAnkle· DNP
- QuestionablePatrick BaileyLBHamstring· DNP
- ProbableEugene AmanoCKnee· Full
Win probability
- Titans
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.198EPA / play-0.046
- 51.4%Success rate39.2%
- +0.305EPA / dropback+0.025
- +0.014EPA / rush-0.170
- 10.8%Explosive rate8.7%
- +7.27CPOE-1.91
- 58.6%Third-down rate35.9%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 2.96Points / drive1.51
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–4 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. TEN are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 77 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q1 9:54 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NO | Q1 6:54 | 13 | 49 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q1 0:03 | 10 | 44 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NO | Q2 9:45 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q2 8:48 | 4 | 32 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| NO | Q2 6:37 | 7 | 12 | Punt | 3–3 |
| TEN | Q2 3:34 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 3–3 |
| NO | Q2 3:06 | 9 | 67 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| TEN | Q2 0:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–3 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 6–3 |
| NO | Q3 11:51 | 14 | 86 | Field goal | 9–3 |
| TEN | Q3 3:51 | 6 | 72 | Touchdown | 9–10 |
| NO | Q3 2:19 | 9 | 72 | Touchdown | 16–10 |
| TEN | Q4 12:39 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 16–10 |
| NO | Q4 11:00 | 8 | 60 | Touchdown | 22–10 |
| TEN | Q4 7:01 | 3 | 65 | Touchdown | 22–17 |
| NO | Q4 5:58 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 22–17 |
| TEN | Q4 4:36 | 10 | 41 | Turnover on downs | 22–17 |
| NO | Q4 2:18 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 22–17 |
| TEN | Q4 1:34 | 6 | 72 | End of half | 22–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 36/47 | 337 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 7 | 7 | 105 | 2 |
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 5 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 6 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 4 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| John Gilmore | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 13/29 | 282 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 5/7 | 44 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 11 | 23 | 2.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 6 | 9 | 130 | 1 |
| Damian Williams | 2 | 10 | 62 | 0 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marc Mariani | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.1%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.48