2023 · Week 1

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

15·16

Saints

New Orleans

QB Derek Carr

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome

Closing spread

NO -3

Total

41

Model margin

+4.5est.

NO perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapSaints
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.015
  • 40.9%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback+0.052
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.113
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +0.48CPOE+1.94
  • 34.1%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 49.4%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.82
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–4 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. NO are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17NO @ TEN34–26NO
2021 · W10NO @ TEN21–23TEN
2019 · W16NO @ TEN38–28NO
2015 · W9TEN @ NO34–28TEN
2011 · W14NO @ TEN22–17NO
2007 · W3TEN @ NO31–14TEN
2003 · W3NO @ TEN12–27TEN
1999 · W6TEN @ NO24–21TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–NO
NOQ1 15:0000Field goal0–0
TENQ1 14:5632Field goal3–0
NOQ1 13:40867Field goal3–3
TENQ1 10:181166Field goal6–3
NOQ1 3:0733Punt6–3
TENQ1 1:2232Punt6–3
NOQ2 15:00523Punt6–3
TENQ2 11:4434Punt6–3
NOQ2 9:54614Field goal6–6
TENQ2 7:3735Turnover6–6
NOQ2 6:363-8Punt6–6
TENQ2 4:29767Field goal9–6
NOQ2 1:40644Turnover9–6
TENQ2 0:301-8End of half9–6
TENQ3 15:00428Turnover9–6
NOQ3 12:55660Field goal9–9
TENQ3 9:2549Punt9–9
NOQ3 7:15611Punt9–9
TENQ3 4:3835Turnover9–9
NOQ3 3:08533Touchdown9–16
TENQ3 1:231248Field goal12–16
NOQ4 11:12835Punt12–16
TENQ4 6:42957Field goal15–16
NOQ4 2:17772End of half15–16

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill16/3419803

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry15634.20
Tyjae Spears3279.00
Treylon Burks199.00
Ryan Tannehill351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins713650
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine47580
Derrick Henry23560
Treylon Burks23180
Tyjae Spears1410
Chris Moore0100
Chig Okonkwo0200

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr23/3330511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams18452.50
Rashid Shaheed2115.50
Tony Jones155.00
Derek Carr341.30
Taysom Hill341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave8101120
Rashid Shaheed56891
Michael Thomas58610
Juwan Johnson35360
Jamaal Williams2270
Taysom Hill0100
Keith Kirkwood0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.0%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.58
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.46