Closing spread
NO -3
Total
41
Model margin
+4.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.015
- 40.9%Success rate42.2%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.113
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- +0.48CPOE+1.94
- 34.1%Third-down rate39.4%
- 49.4%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 1.57Points / drive1.82
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–4 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. NO are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 16/34 | 198 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 15 | 63 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 13 | 65 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 4 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 3 | 56 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 23/33 | 305 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 18 | 45 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 8 | 10 | 112 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 5 | 6 | 89 | 1 |
| Michael Thomas | 5 | 8 | 61 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.17
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.58
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.46