Closing spread
NO -4.5
Total
46
Model margin
+3.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play+0.011
- 42.4%Success rate47.6%
- -0.003EPA / dropback+0.072
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.101
- 7.0%Explosive rate7.6%
- +1.31CPOE+4.63
- 41.4%Third-down rate46.0%
- 48.8%Red-zone TD rate69.1%
- 1.43Points / drive1.69
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–4 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. NO are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 53 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 8:47 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 7:19 | 9 | 40 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NO | Q1 2:44 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q1 0:35 | 6 | 45 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| NO | Q2 12:55 | 6 | 18 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| TEN | Q2 10:15 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| NO | Q2 10:05 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 10–0 |
| TEN | Q2 7:03 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–0 |
| NO | Q2 5:14 | 12 | 57 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| TEN | Q2 1:00 | 4 | 22 | End of half | 10–7 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–7 |
| TEN | Q3 14:23 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–7 |
| NO | Q3 12:46 | 9 | 62 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| TEN | Q3 7:55 | 10 | 52 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| NO | Q3 2:19 | 5 | 22 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| TEN | Q4 14:50 | 10 | 51 | Touchdown | 24–14 |
| NO | Q4 8:55 | 4 | 7 | Turnover | 24–14 |
| TEN | Q4 7:22 | 3 | 8 | Missed field goal | 24–14 |
| NO | Q4 4:49 | 7 | 35 | Opp touchdown | 31–14 |
| NO | Q4 2:39 | 6 | 25 | Turnover | 31–14 |
| TEN | Q4 0:58 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 14/22 | 164 | 2 | 1 |
| Kerry Collins | 4/4 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LenDale White | 17 | 50 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Chris Brown | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Roydell Williams | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 29/45 | 225 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 2 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.60