Closing spread
NO -9.5
Total
33.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.110EPA / play-0.148
- 35.3%Success rate36.9%
- -0.079EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.177EPA / rush-0.247
- 6.6%Explosive rate7.7%
- 29.7%Third-down rate34.1%
- 74.3%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
- 1.12Points / drive1.12
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.100EPA / play allowed+0.007
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. NO are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 12:43 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 9:26 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 6:07 | 4 | 15 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CLE | Q1 3:59 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 1:29 | 9 | 31 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| CLE | Q2 11:50 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NO | Q2 10:51 | 6 | 25 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| CLE | Q2 7:43 | 1 | 27 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 7:37 | 11 | 38 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q2 2:18 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 1:06 | 8 | 42 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| CLE | Q2 0:08 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 7–10 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 24 | Punt | 7–10 |
| NO | Q3 11:02 | 4 | 10 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| CLE | Q3 9:37 | 2 | 22 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| NO | Q3 8:53 | 15 | 56 | Field goal | 14–13 |
| CLE | Q3 1:15 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 14–13 |
| NO | Q4 14:01 | 2 | 8 | Turnover | 14–13 |
| CLE | Q4 13:11 | 3 | 7 | Missed field goal | 14–13 |
| NO | Q4 11:16 | 10 | 60 | Turnover | 14–13 |
| CLE | Q4 5:27 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–13 |
| NO | Q4 3:41 | 7 | 35 | Field goal | 14–16 |
| CLE | Q4 0:21 | 3 | 75 | Touchdown | 21–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 11/19 | 193 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Terry Kirby | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Johnson | 4 | 6 | 96 | 2 |
| Leslie Shepherd | 4 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Terry Kirby | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Joe Tolliver | 9/20 | 92 | 0 | 1 |
| Billy Joe Hobert | 4/9 | 28 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 40 | 179 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Billy Joe Tolliver | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Billy Joe Hobert | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Kennison | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 3 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Lawrence Dawsey | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Brett Bech | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marvin Powell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Wilcox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.53
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.21