Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
32
Model margin
-1.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.037EPA / play+0.013
- 45.5%Success rate44.1%
- +0.018EPA / dropback+0.021
- -0.109EPA / rush+0.002
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.8%
- +1.61CPOE+1.05
- 40.9%Third-down rate39.0%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
- 1.59Points / drive1.91
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. CLE are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 8/15 | 92 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 20 | 76 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 9 | 56 | 6.2 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 15/31 | 135 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 24 | 92 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 6 | 10 | 72 | 0 |
| David Bell | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Mike Woods | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.2%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.95
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.45