2022 · Week 16

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Andy Dalton

17·10

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 6°F · wind 27mph

Closing spread

CLE -3

Total

32

Model margin

-1.4est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.037EPA / play+0.013
  • 45.5%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.018EPA / dropback+0.021
  • -0.109EPA / rush+0.002
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +1.61CPOE+1.05
  • 40.9%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.91
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. CLE are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11CLE @ NO14–35NO
2018 · W2CLE @ NO18–21NO
2014 · W2NO @ CLE24–26CLE
2010 · W7CLE @ NO30–17CLE
2006 · W1NO @ CLE19–14NO
2002 · W12CLE @ NO24–15CLE
1999 · W8CLE @ NO21–16CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:2537Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:5336Punt0–0
NOQ1 10:341048Punt0–0
CLEQ1 5:1032Punt0–0
NOQ1 3:3830Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 2:44530Touchdown0–7
NOQ2 14:5536Punt0–7
CLEQ2 12:511780Field goal0–10
NOQ2 4:07953Field goal3–10
NOQ3 15:00967Touchdown10–10
CLEQ3 9:40521Punt10–10
NOQ3 6:2338Punt10–10
CLEQ3 4:1339Turnover10–10
NOQ3 2:55415Touchdown17–10
CLEQ3 0:55617Punt17–10
NOQ4 13:26640Punt17–10
CLEQ4 9:41629Turnover on downs17–10
NOQ4 6:5531Punt17–10
CLEQ4 5:161953Turnover on downs17–10
NOQ4 0:1900End of half17–10

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton8/159201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara20763.81
Taysom Hill9566.21
David Johnson7162.30
Andy Dalton1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashid Shaheed45410
Alvin Kamara24340
Juwan Johnson1290
David Johnson1180
Keith Kirkwood0200

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson15/3113501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb24923.80
Deshaun Watson3248.01
Kareem Hunt781.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper610720
David Bell12180
David Njoku25140
Kareem Hunt33140
Nick Chubb11100
Mike Woods1150
Donovan Peoples-Jones1520

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

7.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.2%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.95
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-1.45