Closing spread
NO -12
Total
44
Model margin
+5.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.077EPA / play+0.039
- 40.5%Success rate46.2%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.121
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.117
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- +2.13CPOE+5.83
- 37.8%Third-down rate48.8%
- 55.3%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 1.31Points / drive1.88
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. NO are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 9/16 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1/1 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 16 | 69 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Mike Bell | 5 | -3 | -0.6 | 0 |
| Yamon Figurs | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 5 | -5 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robiskie | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 37/56 | 356 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 10 | 15 | 112 | 1 |
| Ladell Betts | 8 | 10 | 48 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 5 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 3 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| Robert Meachem | 2 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.78
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.27