Closing spread
NO -5.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.006
- 42.2%Success rate39.0%
- +0.050EPA / dropback+0.038
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.078
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.2%
- 40.7%Third-down rate40.9%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.59Points / drive1.94
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.025EPA / play allowed-0.005
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. NO are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 12/21 | 182 | 1 | 2 |
| Kevin Johnson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Green | 28 | 114 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 2 | 35 | 17.5 | 1 |
| James Jackson | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Northcutt | 3 | 4 | 68 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 2 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 3 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Darnell Sanders | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Steve Heiden | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| William Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 23/40 | 318 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Fenderson | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Curtis Keaton | 10 | 19 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Fred McAfee | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael L. Lewis | 3 | 4 | 114 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 3 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Boo Williams | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 4 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| James Fenderson | 5 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Lamont Hall | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.83