2002 · Week 12

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

24·15

Saints

New Orleans

QB Aaron Brooks

Louisiana Superdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

NO -5.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSaints
  • +0.007EPA / play-0.006
  • 42.2%Success rate39.0%
  • +0.050EPA / dropback+0.038
  • -0.064EPA / rush-0.078
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.2%
  • 40.7%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.94
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
  • -0.025EPA / play allowed-0.005

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. NO are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11CLE @ NO14–35NO
2022 · W16NO @ CLE17–10NO
2018 · W2CLE @ NO18–21NO
2014 · W2NO @ CLE24–26CLE
2010 · W7CLE @ NO30–17CLE
2006 · W1NO @ CLE19–14NO
1999 · W8CLE @ NO21–16CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–NO
CLEQ1 15:0048Turnover0–0
NOQ1 13:17522Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 11:0935Punt0–3
NOQ1 10:123-3Punt0–3
CLEQ1 8:471071Touchdown7–3
NOQ1 3:30850Field goal7–6
CLEQ2 14:06530Punt7–6
NOQ2 11:55969Turnover7–6
CLEQ2 7:21612Punt7–6
CLEQ2 4:05236Touchdown14–6
NOQ2 3:50767Turnover14–6
CLEQ2 1:4522End of half14–6
NOQ3 15:001280Touchdown14–12
CLEQ3 8:18779Touchdown21–12
NOQ3 4:441058Turnover21–12
CLEQ3 0:13619Turnover21–12
NOQ4 11:5539Field goal21–15
CLEQ4 10:141275Field goal24–15
NOQ4 3:25312Turnover24–15
CLEQ4 2:4134Punt24–15
NOQ4 0:50319Turnover24–15
CLEQ4 0:1500End of half24–15

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch12/2118212
Kevin Johnson0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
William Green281144.11
Dennis Northcutt23517.51
James Jackson2115.50
Tim Couch530.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dennis Northcutt34680
Quincy Morgan26570
Kevin Johnson35311
Darnell Sanders1190
Steve Heiden1180
James Jackson1150
Mark Campbell1140
William Green0100
Andre Davis0200

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Brooks23/4031803

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Fenderson7355.01
Curtis Keaton10191.90
Fred McAfee11111.00
Aaron Brooks393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael L. Lewis341140
Joe Horn36470
Boo Williams46430
Jerome Pathon48390
James Fenderson57330
Donte' Stallworth26240
David Sloan11140
Lamont Hall1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.73
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.83