Closing spread
NO -4.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.067EPA / play-0.069
- 47.9%Success rate38.1%
- +0.126EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.1%
- +3.60CPOE-7.11
- 48.2%Third-down rate29.9%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
- 2.11Points / drive1.44
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. CLE are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 27/40 | 237 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 11 | 83 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Khiry Robinson | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 10 | 13 | 118 | 2 |
| Robert Meachem | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 24/40 | 204 | 1 | 0 |
| Johnny Manziel | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance West | 19 | 68 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Hawkins | 6 | 12 | 70 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 6 | 10 | 44 | 1 |
| Gary Barnidge | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Ray Agnew | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.29