2014 · Week 2

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

24·26

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brian Hoyer

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NO -4.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.067EPA / play-0.069
  • 47.9%Success rate38.1%
  • +0.126EPA / dropback-0.022
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.130
  • 8.7%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +3.60CPOE-7.11
  • 48.2%Third-down rate29.9%
  • 62.9%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.44
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. CLE are 5-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11CLE @ NO14–35NO
2022 · W16NO @ CLE17–10NO
2018 · W2CLE @ NO18–21NO
2010 · W7CLE @ NO30–17CLE
2006 · W1NO @ CLE19–14NO
2002 · W12CLE @ NO24–15CLE
1999 · W8CLE @ NO21–16CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CLE
NOQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:35518Punt0–0
NOQ1 11:263-2Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:351032Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 5:59615Punt0–7
CLEQ1 3:311039Field goal0–10
NOQ2 15:00524Punt0–10
CLEQ2 12:11623Punt0–10
NOQ2 8:44668Field goal3–10
CLEQ2 5:1632Punt3–10
NOQ2 4:12212Opp touchdown3–16
NOQ2 3:251190Touchdown10–16
CLEQ2 0:0300End of half10–16
CLEQ3 15:00613Punt10–16
NOQ3 12:49857Touchdown17–16
CLEQ3 9:321485Touchdown17–23
NOQ3 3:191380Touchdown24–23
CLEQ4 12:12732Punt24–23
NOQ4 8:591152Punt24–23
CLEQ4 2:461480Field goal24–26
NOQ4 0:0300Turnover24–26

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees27/4023721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram11837.51
Khiry Robinson8313.90
Brandin Cooks23115.50
Pierre Thomas3165.30
Drew Brees133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham10131182
Robert Meachem35370
Kenny Stills34250
Mark Ingram34210
Brandin Cooks36170
Pierre Thomas33160
Benjamin Watson1240
Josh Hill12-10

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer24/4020410
Johnny Manziel0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terrance West19683.61
Isaiah Crowell11544.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andrew Hawkins612700
Miles Austin610441
Gary Barnidge44410
Terrance West22220
Taylor Gabriel34130
Travis Benjamin1460
Jim Dray1250
Isaiah Crowell1130
Ray Agnew0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.5%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.29