2018 · Week 2

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tyrod Taylor

18·21

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -10

Total

51

Model margin

+6.4est.

NO perspective

Push chance

3.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSaints
  • -0.009EPA / play+0.156
  • 42.8%Success rate49.9%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback+0.284
  • -0.091EPA / rush-0.011
  • 10.4%Explosive rate10.2%
  • -0.95CPOE+5.42
  • 35.9%Third-down rate46.3%
  • 71.1%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.75Points / drive2.94
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. NO are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11CLE @ NO14–35NO
2022 · W16NO @ CLE17–10NO
2014 · W2NO @ CLE24–26CLE
2010 · W7CLE @ NO30–17CLE
2006 · W1NO @ CLE19–14NO
2002 · W12CLE @ NO24–15CLE
1999 · W8CLE @ NO21–16CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–NO
CLEQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
NOQ1 12:58316Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 11:31525Field goal3–0
NOQ1 8:291248Field goal3–3
CLEQ1 2:47615Punt3–3
NOQ2 14:22822Turnover3–3
CLEQ2 10:3948Turnover on downs3–3
NOQ2 9:12846Missed field goal3–3
CLEQ2 4:16645Field goal6–3
NOQ2 1:5532Punt6–3
CLEQ2 0:3824End of half6–3
NOQ3 15:0039Punt6–3
CLEQ3 13:101446Touchdown12–3
NOQ3 6:43510Punt12–3
CLEQ3 3:15956Missed field goal12–3
NOQ4 14:161061Touchdown12–10
CLEQ4 8:413-3Punt12–10
NOQ4 7:203-5Punt12–10
CLEQ4 5:5226Turnover12–10
NOQ4 4:57418Touchdown12–18
CLEQ4 2:40675Touchdown18–18
NOQ4 1:16549Field goal18–21
CLEQ4 0:21241Missed field goal18–21
NOQ4 0:0300End of half18–21

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor22/3024611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde16432.71
Tyrod Taylor4266.50
Nick Chubb2147.00
Antonio Callaway273.50
Duke Johnson331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Callaway34811
Jarvis Landry57690
Rashard Higgins57470
David Njoku47200
Darren Fells22150
Carlos Hyde1170
Duke Johnson2270

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees28/3524320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara13463.50
Mike Gillislee8182.30
Drew Brees1-1-1.00
Jonathan Williams1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas1213892
Ted Ginn47550
Alvin Kamara66530
Benjamin Watson35190
Tre'Quan Smith11180
Josh Hill1150
Austin Carr0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.9%

Expected total

47.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.41
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.23
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.38