Closing spread
NO -10
Total
51
Model margin
+6.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play+0.156
- 42.8%Success rate49.9%
- +0.037EPA / dropback+0.284
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.011
- 10.4%Explosive rate10.2%
- -0.95CPOE+5.42
- 35.9%Third-down rate46.3%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.75Points / drive2.94
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. NO are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 22/30 | 246 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 16 | 43 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Callaway | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Callaway | 3 | 4 | 81 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 5 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 4 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 28/35 | 243 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 12 | 13 | 89 | 2 |
| Ted Ginn | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Austin Carr | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.9%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.41
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+3.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.38