Closing spread
CLE -1
Total
44
Model margin
+2.9est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.179EPA / play-0.057
- 37.1%Success rate40.6%
- -0.196EPA / dropback-0.071
- -0.140EPA / rush-0.036
- 5.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- -4.22CPOE-3.67
- 28.8%Third-down rate36.3%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.09Points / drive1.72
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. NO are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 30/46 | 395 | 2 | 0 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 11 | 142 | 1 |
| David Njoku | 9 | 9 | 81 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 6 | 8 | 66 | 1 |
| Cedric Tillman | 3 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Jamari Thrash | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 21/27 | 248 | 2 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/2 | 18 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 7 | 138 | 19.7 | 3 |
| Alvin Kamara | 16 | 67 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Mims | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jake Haener | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 4 | 87 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 8 | 10 | 50 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 3 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 3 | 30 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Kevin Austin Jr. | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.71
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.86