2024 · Week 11

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jameis Winston

14·35

Saints

New Orleans

QB Derek Carr

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

CLE -1

Total

44

Model margin

+2.9est.

NO perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSaints
  • -0.179EPA / play-0.057
  • 37.1%Success rate40.6%
  • -0.196EPA / dropback-0.071
  • -0.140EPA / rush-0.036
  • 5.8%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -4.22CPOE-3.67
  • 28.8%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 1.09Points / drive1.72
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 4–4 since 1999

NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. NO are 3-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W16NO @ CLE17–10NO
2018 · W2CLE @ NO18–21NO
2014 · W2NO @ CLE24–26CLE
2010 · W7CLE @ NO30–17CLE
2006 · W1NO @ CLE19–14NO
2002 · W12CLE @ NO24–15CLE
1999 · W8CLE @ NO21–16CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–NO
CLEQ1 15:00619Turnover on downs0–0
NOQ1 12:28649Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 9:5443Punt0–7
NOQ1 8:561264Punt6–7
CLEQ1 2:07189Touchdown6–7
NOQ1 1:5210Turnover6–7
CLEQ1 1:38419Punt6–7
NOQ2 14:14380Touchdown6–14
CLEQ2 12:401045Missed field goal6–14
NOQ2 6:45952Turnover6–14
CLEQ2 1:551279Missed field goal6–14
NOQ3 15:00528Punt6–14
CLEQ3 13:01892Touchdown14–14
NOQ3 8:49517Punt14–14
CLEQ3 5:27516Punt14–14
NOQ3 3:18977Touchdown14–21
CLEQ4 13:22728Punt14–21
NOQ4 9:00630Touchdown14–28
CLEQ4 6:041048Turnover on downs14–28
NOQ4 2:43278Touchdown14–35
CLEQ4 2:2635Punt14–35
NOQ4 1:0700End of half14–35

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston30/4639520
Dorian Thompson-Robinson0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb11504.50
Jerome Ford5102.00
Jameis Winston188.00
Pierre Strong252.50
Kadarius Toney1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy6111421
David Njoku99810
Elijah Moore68661
Cedric Tillman38470
Jerome Ford44290
Jordan Akins14190
Jamari Thrash11110

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr21/2724820
Taysom Hill1/21801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Taysom Hill713819.73
Alvin Kamara16674.20
Derek Carr188.00
Jordan Mims231.50
Jake Haener2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquez Valdes-Scantling24871
Taysom Hill810500
Foster Moreau34500
Juwan Johnson33301
Alvin Kamara44220
Kevin Austin Jr.12180
Dante Pettis1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.71
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+2.86