Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
36
Model margin
-1.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.197
- 44.8%Success rate38.3%
- +0.157EPA / dropback-0.178
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.231
- 9.5%Explosive rate6.4%
- +2.07CPOE+3.75
- 45.7%Third-down rate34.0%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 1.91Points / drive1.01
- 2.1%Turnover rate4.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. CLE are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 17/31 | 176 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 22 | 90 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 14 | 61 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Frye | 16/27 | 132 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Frye | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Reuben Droughns | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.2%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.83