Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
36
Model margin
-1.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.197
- 44.8%Success rate38.3%
- +0.157EPA / dropback-0.178
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.231
- 9.5%Explosive rate6.4%
- +2.07CPOE+3.75
- 45.7%Third-down rate34.0%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 1.91Points / drive1.01
- 2.1%Turnover rate4.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. CLE are 5-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 4 | -9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 12:51 | 9 | 27 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CLE | Q1 9:37 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NO | Q1 7:31 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| CLE | Q1 6:08 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NO | Q1 3:53 | 11 | 73 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| CLE | Q2 14:28 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 6–0 |
| NO | Q2 12:54 | 8 | 30 | Field goal | 9–0 |
| CLE | Q2 8:25 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 9–0 |
| NO | Q2 7:04 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 9–0 |
| CLE | Q2 3:48 | 8 | 38 | Turnover | 9–0 |
| NO | Q2 0:36 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 9–0 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 9–0 |
| CLE | Q3 14:09 | 10 | 67 | Touchdown | 9–7 |
| NO | Q3 9:05 | 2 | 15 | Turnover | 9–7 |
| CLE | Q3 8:18 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 9–7 |
| NO | Q3 6:46 | 11 | 73 | Touchdown | 16–7 |
| CLE | Q3 2:00 | 14 | 75 | Touchdown | 16–14 |
| NO | Q4 11:20 | 10 | 70 | Field goal | 19–14 |
| CLE | Q4 5:42 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 19–14 |
| NO | Q4 3:42 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 19–14 |
| CLE | Q4 1:57 | 4 | 0 | Turnover | 19–14 |
| NO | Q4 1:36 | 2 | 1 | Turnover on downs | 19–14 |
| NO | Q4 0:48 | 1 | 2 | Turnover on downs | 19–14 |
| NO | Q4 0:00 | 0 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 19–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 17/31 | 176 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 22 | 90 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 14 | 61 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Frye | 16/27 | 132 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Frye | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Reuben Droughns | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.2%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.83