1999 · Week 8

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Drew Bledsoe

27·3

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Dave Brown

Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

NE -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.107EPA / play-0.176
  • 37.4%Success rate35.9%
  • -0.062EPA / dropback-0.148
  • -0.179EPA / rush-0.226
  • 7.8%Explosive rate5.9%
  • 35.1%Third-down rate33.3%
  • 45.4%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
  • 1.19Points / drive0.87
  • 3.1%Turnover rate3.8%
  • -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.001

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. ARI are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15NE @ ARI17–30ARI
2022 · W14NE @ ARI27–13NE
2020 · W12ARI @ NE17–20NE
2016 · W1NE @ ARI23–21NE
2012 · W2ARI @ NE20–18ARI
2008 · W16ARI @ NE7–47NE
2004 · W2NE @ ARI23–12NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–ARI
NEQ1 15:00524Punt0–0
ARIQ1 12:3230Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:07553Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 8:56828Punt7–0
NEQ1 4:12675Touchdown14–0
ARIQ1 1:13421Turnover14–0
NEQ2 14:4934Punt14–0
ARIQ2 13:4130Punt14–0
NEQ2 13:1956Punt14–0
ARIQ2 11:203-8Punt14–0
NEQ2 9:4431Punt14–0
ARIQ2 8:0233Punt14–0
NEQ2 7:15666Touchdown20–0
ARIQ2 4:4535Punt20–0
NEQ2 3:16417Punt20–0
ARIQ2 1:50531Turnover20–0
NEQ2 1:09312Punt20–0
ARIQ2 0:431-3End of half20–0
ARIQ3 15:00965Field goal20–3
NEQ3 9:57615Punt20–3
ARIQ3 5:39514Punt20–3
NEQ3 3:12890Touchdown27–3
ARIQ4 14:2044Turnover on downs27–3
NEQ4 13:1468Punt27–3
ARIQ4 9:0330Punt27–3
NEQ4 8:3431Punt27–3
ARIQ4 6:2232Punt27–3
NEQ4 5:25616Punt27–3
ARIQ4 1:5144Turnover on downs27–3
NEQ4 1:0800End of half27–3

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe14/2227640

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terry Allen21884.20
Kevin Faulk17422.50
Jerry Ellison188.00
Tony Carter263.00
John Friesz2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shawn Jefferson331132
Terry Glenn44631
Vincent Brisby23410
Terry Allen11380
Rod Rutledge11100
Tony Carter2480
Lamont Warren1231
Ben Coates0200
Tony Simmons0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dave Brown12/3310702
Chris Greisen1/6400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Murrell13473.60
Michael Pittman4297.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Frank Sanders412340
Adrian Murrell34290
Rob Moore25270
David Boston210140
Dennis McKinley1140
Terry Hardy1330
Johnny McWilliams0100
Michael Pittman0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.47
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.13
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.78