Closing spread
NE -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play-0.176
- 37.4%Success rate35.9%
- -0.062EPA / dropback-0.148
- -0.179EPA / rush-0.226
- 7.8%Explosive rate5.9%
- 35.1%Third-down rate33.3%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.19Points / drive0.87
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. ARI are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 14/22 | 276 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 21 | 88 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 17 | 42 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jerry Ellison | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| John Friesz | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Jefferson | 3 | 3 | 113 | 2 |
| Terry Glenn | 4 | 4 | 63 | 1 |
| Vincent Brisby | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 1 | 1 | 38 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Ben Coates | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Simmons | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Brown | 12/33 | 107 | 0 | 2 |
| Chris Greisen | 1/6 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Murrell | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Sanders | 4 | 12 | 34 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Rob Moore | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| David Boston | 2 | 10 | 14 | 0 |
| Dennis McKinley | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Johnny McWilliams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.47
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.13
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.78