Closing spread
ARI -6
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play+0.067
- 42.5%Success rate47.3%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.187EPA / rush-0.023
- 7.0%Explosive rate10.0%
- +1.54CPOE+2.11
- 35.0%Third-down rate43.0%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 1.51Points / drive2.31
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. ARI are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 19/23 | 202 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 13 | 69 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 3 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 23/30 | 224 | 0 | 0 |
| Clayton Tune | 2/2 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 16 | 110 | 6.9 | 2 |
| Trey Benson | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Clayton Tune | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 9 | 10 | 87 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 3 | 3 | 60 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 2 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| James Conner | 5 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Tip Reiman | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.20
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.34