2024 · Week 15

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

17·30

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -6

Total

46.5

Model margin

+4.3est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.081EPA / play+0.067
  • 42.5%Success rate47.3%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback+0.126
  • -0.187EPA / rush-0.023
  • 7.0%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +1.54CPOE+2.11
  • 35.0%Third-down rate43.0%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 1.51Points / drive2.31
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. ARI are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W14NE @ ARI27–13NE
2020 · W12ARI @ NE17–20NE
2016 · W1NE @ ARI23–21NE
2012 · W2ARI @ NE20–18ARI
2008 · W16ARI @ NE7–47NE
2004 · W2NE @ ARI23–12NE
1999 · W8NE @ ARI27–3NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–ARI
NEQ1 15:00841Missed field goal0–0
ARIQ1 10:39531Field goal0–3
NEQ1 7:133-5Punt0–3
ARIQ1 4:58678Touchdown0–10
NEQ1 1:2133Punt0–10
ARIQ2 14:17827Punt0–10
NEQ2 9:311148Field goal3–10
ARIQ2 2:011268Field goal3–13
NEQ2 0:1612End of half3–13
ARIQ3 15:001144Field goal3–16
NEQ3 9:07966Turnover on downs3–16
ARIQ3 4:54611Punt3–16
NEQ3 1:47411Turnover3–16
ARIQ3 0:31955Touchdown3–23
NEQ4 10:39675Touchdown10–23
ARIQ4 8:14970Touchdown10–30
NEQ4 3:27670Touchdown17–30
ARIQ4 1:55312End of half17–30

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye19/2320211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson13695.30
Antonio Gibson7334.70
Drake Maye4143.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendrick Bourne33440
Austin Hooper33380
Antonio Gibson22310
Hunter Henry44250
Kayshon Boutte25190
Rhamondre Stevenson11160
DeMario Douglas33111
Ja'Lynn Polk0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray23/3022400
Clayton Tune2/2800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner161106.92
Trey Benson5224.40
DeeJay Dallas4153.80
Kyler Murray5112.20
Greg Dortch166.00
Clayton Tune1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey McBride910870
Greg Dortch33600
Marvin Harrison Jr.26320
James Conner55280
Michael Wilson2290
Tip Reiman2380
Elijah Higgins1150
Zay Jones1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

3.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.7%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+4.34