2022 · Week 14

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

27·13

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

NE -2

Total

44

Model margin

-0.2est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.047EPA / play-0.081
  • 41.1%Success rate40.7%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback-0.079
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.084
  • 10.3%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +0.93CPOE-1.70
  • 35.3%Third-down rate35.4%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 1.54Points / drive1.60
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. ARI are 2-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15NE @ ARI17–30ARI
2020 · W12ARI @ NE17–20NE
2016 · W1NE @ ARI23–21NE
2012 · W2ARI @ NE20–18ARI
2008 · W16ARI @ NE7–47NE
2004 · W2NE @ ARI23–12NE
1999 · W8NE @ ARI27–3NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00845Missed field goal0–0
NEQ1 10:34415Punt0–0
ARIQ1 9:12642Punt0–0
NEQ1 4:56631Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 2:08621Field goal0–3
NEQ2 14:52861Touchdown7–3
ARIQ2 11:25617Field goal7–6
NEQ2 9:35615Punt7–6
ARIQ2 6:53763Touchdown7–13
NEQ2 2:593-11Punt7–13
ARIQ2 1:4249Turnover on downs7–13
NEQ2 0:32540Field goal10–13
NEQ3 15:00881Field goal13–13
ARIQ3 10:15639Turnover on downs13–13
NEQ3 7:5434Punt13–13
ARIQ3 6:19311Opp touchdown20–13
ARIQ3 5:32741Turnover20–13
NEQ3 1:07563Touchdown27–13
ARIQ4 14:093-10Punt27–13
NEQ4 12:33412Punt27–13
ARIQ4 9:491218Turnover on downs27–13
NEQ4 4:5631Punt27–13
ARIQ4 3:55727Turnover on downs27–13
NEQ4 2:18119End of half27–13

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones24/3523501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Strong57014.01
Kevin Harris8263.31
Rhamondre Stevenson382.70
Mac Jones5-1-0.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hunter Henry33700
Kendrick Bourne55470
Nelson Agholor510320
Tyquan Thornton45280
DeVante Parker22240
Pierre Strong22200
Rhamondre Stevenson2320
Jonnu Smith0200

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy27/4024601
Kyler Murray1/1900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner15855.71
Colt McCoy5244.80
Kyler Murray133.00
Keaontay Ingram111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins711790
Robbie Chosen44500
Marquise Brown48340
James Conner67290
Trey McBride36280
Corey Clement11210
A.J. Green1270
Stephen Anderson2270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -22.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.4%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.25
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin-0.23