Closing spread
NE -2
Total
44
Model margin
-0.2est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.047EPA / play-0.081
- 41.1%Success rate40.7%
- -0.026EPA / dropback-0.079
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.084
- 10.3%Explosive rate6.3%
- +0.93CPOE-1.70
- 35.3%Third-down rate35.4%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 1.54Points / drive1.60
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. ARI are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 24/35 | 235 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Strong | 5 | 70 | 14.0 | 1 |
| Kevin Harris | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 3 | 70 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 5 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 5 | 10 | 32 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 27/40 | 246 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyler Murray | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 15 | 85 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Colt McCoy | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 11 | 79 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| James Conner | 6 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.4%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.25
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin-0.23