Closing spread
NE -8
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.099EPA / play-0.097
- 46.5%Success rate38.1%
- +0.228EPA / dropback-0.074
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.128
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.0%
- 45.1%Third-down rate34.7%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 2.15Points / drive1.19
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.088EPA / play allowed-0.081
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. ARI are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 15/26 | 217 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 32 | 158 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 13/29 | 160 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 13 | 31 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Josh McCown | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.70
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.38