Closing spread
NE -8
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.099EPA / play-0.097
- 46.5%Success rate38.1%
- +0.228EPA / dropback-0.074
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.128
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.0%
- 45.1%Third-down rate34.7%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 2.15Points / drive1.19
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.088EPA / play allowed-0.081
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. ARI are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 12:08 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 9:13 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 7:26 | 10 | 31 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 2:11 | 4 | -6 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| NE | Q1 0:43 | 6 | 40 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| ARI | Q2 13:16 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–0 |
| NE | Q2 12:11 | 4 | 16 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| ARI | Q2 10:02 | 3 | -22 | Field goal | 14–3 |
| NE | Q2 8:08 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 14–3 |
| ARI | Q2 7:17 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 14–6 |
| NE | Q2 5:13 | 7 | 43 | Punt | 14–6 |
| ARI | Q2 1:54 | 7 | 29 | Missed field goal | 14–6 |
| NE | Q2 0:04 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 14–6 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 74 | Field goal | 17–6 |
| ARI | Q3 9:21 | 14 | 96 | Touchdown | 17–12 |
| NE | Q3 1:33 | 8 | 69 | Field goal | 20–12 |
| ARI | Q4 12:02 | 4 | 6 | Turnover | 20–12 |
| NE | Q4 10:18 | 6 | 47 | Field goal | 23–12 |
| ARI | Q4 6:22 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 23–12 |
| NE | Q4 5:14 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 23–12 |
| ARI | Q4 3:33 | 7 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 23–12 |
| NE | Q4 2:29 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 23–12 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 15/26 | 217 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 32 | 158 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 13/29 | 160 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 13 | 31 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Josh McCown | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.70
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.38