2020 · Week 12

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

17·20

Patriots

New England

QB Cam Newton

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

ARI -1

Total

51

Model margin

+0.7est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.051EPA / play+0.004
  • 46.0%Success rate46.5%
  • +0.087EPA / dropback-0.040
  • -0.009EPA / rush+0.052
  • 9.3%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +2.07CPOE-2.06
  • 40.2%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 71.9%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
  • 2.19Points / drive1.88
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 6–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. NE are 6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15NE @ ARI17–30ARI
2022 · W14NE @ ARI27–13NE
2016 · W1NE @ ARI23–21NE
2012 · W2ARI @ NE20–18ARI
2008 · W16ARI @ NE7–47NE
2004 · W2NE @ ARI23–12NE
1999 · W8NE @ ARI27–3NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–NE
NEQ1 15:0034Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 13:38323Touchdown7–0
NEQ1 12:09920Punt7–0
ARIQ1 7:131163Field goal10–0
NEQ1 1:49741Touchdown10–7
ARIQ2 14:15719Punt10–7
NEQ2 10:0956Punt10–7
ARIQ2 6:571571Turnover on downs10–7
ARIQ3 15:00623Punt10–7
NEQ3 11:43735Field goal10–10
ARIQ3 7:4637Turnover10–10
NEQ3 6:21631Touchdown10–17
ARIQ3 3:303-6Punt10–17
NEQ3 1:593-4Punt10–17
ARIQ3 0:211978Touchdown17–17
NEQ4 8:02728Turnover17–17
ARIQ4 4:27620Missed field goal17–17
NEQ4 1:47518Field goal17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray23/3417001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake22783.52
Kyler Murray5316.20
Chase Edmonds6294.80
Christian Kirk100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins57550
Andy Isabella46330
Christian Kirk36190
Dan Arnold13170
Kenyan Drake34150
Chase Edmonds45140
Maxx Williams22100
KeeSean Johnson1170

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton9/188402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Harris14473.40
Cam Newton9465.10
James White5183.62
Gunner Olszewski111.00
N'Keal Harry1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers56520
Damiere Byrd38330
N'Keal Harry0200
James White11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

41.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+0.65