Closing spread
ARI -1
Total
51
Model margin
+0.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play+0.004
- 46.0%Success rate46.5%
- +0.087EPA / dropback-0.040
- -0.009EPA / rush+0.052
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.4%
- +2.07CPOE-2.06
- 40.2%Third-down rate41.3%
- 71.9%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 2.19Points / drive1.88
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. NE are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 23/34 | 170 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 22 | 78 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Andy Isabella | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| KeeSean Johnson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 9/18 | 84 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| James White | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 3 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| James White | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.81
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.65