Closing spread
NE -9
Total
41
Model margin
+5.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.052EPA / play+0.103
- 45.0%Success rate46.7%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.140EPA / rush+0.071
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.9%
- +5.02CPOE+1.36
- 43.3%Third-down rate44.4%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 2.12Points / drive2.35
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. NE are 6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Leinart | 6/14 | 138 | 1 | 1 |
| Kurt Warner | 6/18 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 10 | 17 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 20/36 | 345 | 3 | 0 |
| Kevin O'Connell | 1/2 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 15 | 88 | 5.9 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 20 | 78 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kevin O'Connell | 3 | -6 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.50